Determination of disease risk factors using binary data envelopment analysis and logistic regression analysis (case study: a stroke risk factors)

Purpose A stroke is a serious, life-threatening condition that occurs when the blood supply to a part of the brain is cut off. The earlier a stroke is treated, the less damage is likely to occur. One of the methods that can lead to faster treatment is timely and accurate prediction and diagnosis. This paper aims to compare the binary integer programming-data envelopment analysis (BIP-DEA) model and the logistic regression (LR) model for diagnosing and predicting the occurrence of stroke in Iran. Design/methodology/approach In this study, two algorithms of the BIP-DEA and LR methods were introduced and key risk factors leading to stroke were extracted. Findings The study population consisted of 2,100 samples (patients) divided into six subsamples of different sizes. The classification table of each algorithm showed that the BIP-DEA model had more reliable results than the LR for the small data size. After running each algorithm, the BIP-DEA and LR algorithms identified eight and five factors as more effective risk factors and causes of stroke, respectively. Finally, predictive models using the important risk factors were proposed. Originality/value The main objective of this study is to provide the integrated BIP-DEA algorithm as a fast, easy and suitable tool for evaluation and prediction. In fact, the BIP-DEA algorithm can be used as an alternative tool to the LR model when the sample size is small. These algorithms can be used in various fields, including the health-care industry, to predict and prevent various diseases before the patient’s condition becomes more dangerous.