Functional and variables selection in extreme value models for regional flood frequency analysis

Abstract The problem of estimating return levels of river discharge, relevant in flood frequency analysis, is tackled by relying on the extreme value theory. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is assumed to model annual maxima values of river discharge registered at multiple gauging stations belonging to the same river basin. The specific features of the data from the Upper Danube basin drive the definition of the proposed statistical model. Firstly, Bayesian P-splines are considered to account for the non-linear effects of station-specific covariates on the GEV parameters. Secondly, the problem of functional and variable selection is addressed by imposing a grouped horseshoe prior to the coefficients to encourage the shrinkage of non-relevant components to zero. A cross-validation study is organized to compare the proposed modeling solution to other models, showing its potential to reduce the uncertainty of the ungauged predictions without affecting their calibration.