评估对外贸易经济安全的方法方法

Alexey Zverev, Olga Kuznetsova, Maria Mishina, Tatiana Rebrina, Evgeny Aleshin
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摘要

对外贸易经济安全可以通过一套不同的特殊指标来衡量,没有统一的构成和规定。这项研究的目的是分析评估对外贸易领域经济安全水平的现有方法,并制订一套最佳的确定指标体系。研究涉及国内外学者的科学出版物、俄罗斯进出口领域的官方统计数据以及以下方法:专著、观察、比较、经济分析、模拟和假设模型。本文评估了评估对外贸易经济安全的各种指标,适用于俄罗斯和国外。作者确定了资料最丰富的指标,并提出了若干阈值要求;增加了两个额外的指标(假冒商品的增加率、进口中假冒商品的份额),制定了一种基于评级的方法,以确定出口/进口业务领域经济安全的高、平均、低、危急和灾难性水平。对外贸易是任何国家的一项重要活动;然而,它涉及到一些需要仔细评估和最小化的风险和威胁。因此,有必要选择有效的对外贸易经济安全评估方法。
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Methodological approaches to assessing economic security in foreign trade
Economic security of foreign trade can be measured through a set of different special indicators with no standardised composition and regulations. The purpose of the study is to analyse the existing methods for assessing the level of economic security in the sphere of foreign trade and to develop an optimal system of indicators for its identification. The research involved scientific publications by national and foreign scholars, official statistical data in the field of Russian export and import as well as the following methods – monography, observation, comparison, economic analysis, analogue and hypothetical modelling. The article assesses various indicators for assessing economic security in foreign trade, applied in Russia and abroad. The authors identified the most informative indicators, proposed a number of threshold requirements for them; included two additional indicators (increment rate of counterfeit goods, share of counterfeit goods in imports), developed a rating-based approach to identify high, average, low, critical and catastrophic levels of economic security in the sphere of export/import operations. Foreign trade is an important activity for any state; however, it involves a number of risks and threats to be carefully assessed and minimised. Therefore, it is necessary to select efficient ways of assessing economic security in foreign trade transactions.
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