Jonathan Procel, Marco Guamán, Wilson Guachamín Acero
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Prediction of wave spectral parameters using multiple-output regression models to support the execution of marine operations
Abstract Execution of a marine operation (MO) requires coordinated actions of several vessels conducting simultaneous and sequential offshore activities. These activities have their operational limits given in terms of environmental parameters. Wave parameters are important because of their high energetic level. During the execution of a MO, forecast wave spectral parameters, i.e. significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), and peak direction, are used to make an on-board decision. For critical operations, the use of forecasts can be complemented with buoy measurements. This paper proposes to use synthetic statistics of vessel dynamic responses to predict “real-time” wave spectral parameters using multi-output machine learning (ML) regression algorithms. For a case study of a vessel with no forward speed, it is observed that the random forest model predicts accurate Hs and Tp parameters. The prediction of wave direction is not very accurate but it can be corrected with on-board observations. The random forest model has good performance; it is efficient, useful for practical purposes, and comparable with other deep learning models reported in scientific literature. Findings from this research can be valuable for real-time assessment of wave spectral parameters, which are necessary to support decision-making during the execution of MOs.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering is an international resource for original peer-reviewed research that advances the state of knowledge on all aspects of analysis, design, and technology development in ocean, offshore, arctic, and related fields. Its main goals are to provide a forum for timely and in-depth exchanges of scientific and technical information among researchers and engineers. It emphasizes fundamental research and development studies as well as review articles that offer either retrospective perspectives on well-established topics or exposures to innovative or novel developments. Case histories are not encouraged. The journal also documents significant developments in related fields and major accomplishments of renowned scientists by programming themed issues to record such events.
Scope: Offshore Mechanics, Drilling Technology, Fixed and Floating Production Systems; Ocean Engineering, Hydrodynamics, and Ship Motions; Ocean Climate Statistics, Storms, Extremes, and Hurricanes; Structural Mechanics; Safety, Reliability, Risk Assessment, and Uncertainty Quantification; Riser Mechanics, Cable and Mooring Dynamics, Pipeline and Subsea Technology; Materials Engineering, Fatigue, Fracture, Welding Technology, Non-destructive Testing, Inspection Technologies, Corrosion Protection and Control; Fluid-structure Interaction, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Flow and Vortex-Induced Vibrations; Marine and Offshore Geotechnics, Soil Mechanics, Soil-pipeline Interaction; Ocean Renewable Energy; Ocean Space Utilization and Aquaculture Engineering; Petroleum Technology; Polar and Arctic Science and Technology, Ice Mechanics, Arctic Drilling and Exploration, Arctic Structures, Ice-structure and Ship Interaction, Permafrost Engineering, Arctic and Thermal Design.