阿尔及利亚气候变化预测:2030年水资源部门发展战略

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Foresight Pub Date : 2022-06-08 DOI:10.1108/fs-05-2021-0110
Tarek Bouregaa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的第一个目的是显示全球变暖对阿尔及利亚温度和降水变化的影响。第二个目标是展示该国为减轻未来对水资源的这些影响而规划的战略。本研究利用RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下的16个大气环流模式集合,评估了阿尔及利亚(16个气象站)在2030年和2050年两个水平(2030年和2050年)的温度、降水和SPEI指数的预期变化。研究发现:与RCP2.6情景相比,RCP8.5情景将经历更多的变暖和干旱。升温幅度最大的是南站。而西部站点的预估降水最少。SPEI计算结果表明,干旱严重程度在时间和空间上呈渐变分布。在2050年观测到的最大值在RCP2.6情景下在0.15 ~ - 2.08之间,在RCP8.5情景下在- 0.73 ~ - 2.63之间。这些结果表明,阿尔及利亚非常容易受到气候变化对水资源的影响,这强调了制定应对这种情况的战略的必要性。独创性/价值本研究是首次利用16个环流模式数据的平均值,在两种RCP情景下模拟阿尔及利亚16个气象站未来气候变化的研究之一。本研究展示了缓解干旱和缺水对不同部门影响的2030年水资源发展战略。
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Climate change projections for Algeria: the 2030 water sector development strategy

Purpose

The first aim of this study is to show the impact of global warming on temperature and precipitation changes in Algeria. The second objective is to exhibit the strategy planned by the country to mitigate these effects on water resources in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

This research assesses the expected changes in temperature, precipitation and SPEI index, over Algeria (16 weather stations), between two horizons (2030, 2050), by using an ensemble of 16 general circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Findings

More warming and drought will be experienced under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6 scenario. The highest warming is observed at the Southern stations. However, the lowest precipitation is projected in the western stations. The results of SPEI calculation indicate that the severity of drought spread progressively across time and space. The highest values were observed over 2050 with values varied between 0.15 and −2.08 under RCP2.6 scenario, and range from −0.73 to −2.63 under RCP8.5. These results indicate that Algeria is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources, which stressed the need to develop a strategy against this situation.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first to simulate the future climate changes over 16 Algerian weather stations by using an average of 16 general circulation models data, under two RCP scenarios. This study shows the 2030 water development strategy to mitigate the effect of drought and water scarcity on different sectors.

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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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