{"title":"使用大型集合数据的随机降水模型","authors":"Mizuki Shinohara, Masaru Inatsu","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2023.p0868","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":" February","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data\",\"authors\":\"Mizuki Shinohara, Masaru Inatsu\",\"doi\":\"10.20965/jdr.2023.p0868\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46831,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Disaster Research\",\"volume\":\" February\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Disaster Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2023.p0868\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Disaster Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2023.p0868","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data
A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.