Japan has experienced two major disasters within the last 15 years, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. In order to strengthen economic recovery in the affected regions, Japan implemented tourism development policies which led to a significant increase in tourism numbers. This rise in tourism reached an apex as the country hosted the 2019 Rugby World Cup (RWC). While most of the venues were located in major cities, three of the venues were held in areas that were affected by the aforementioned disasters. This study utilizes semi-structured interviews with representatives from accommodation industries located in host cities recovering from recent disasters. Interview questions focused on the impact of past disaster events, the RWC, COVID-19, and the Go to Travel campaign (GTTC) on business. Our findings highlight that although the tourism industry brought economic opportunities, it also increased its vulnerabilities to external shocks, especially in the accommodation industry. Although all accommodations interviewed were negatively affected, their ability to manage its impacts varied. While the RWC brought an increase in tourism, this was quickly overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite its negative impacts on businesses, the government played a key role in reducing its impacts through GTTC.
{"title":"The 2019 Rugby World Cup and Economic Impacts on Hotels Recovering from Disasters","authors":"David N. Nguyen","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0501","url":null,"abstract":"Japan has experienced two major disasters within the last 15 years, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. In order to strengthen economic recovery in the affected regions, Japan implemented tourism development policies which led to a significant increase in tourism numbers. This rise in tourism reached an apex as the country hosted the 2019 Rugby World Cup (RWC). While most of the venues were located in major cities, three of the venues were held in areas that were affected by the aforementioned disasters. This study utilizes semi-structured interviews with representatives from accommodation industries located in host cities recovering from recent disasters. Interview questions focused on the impact of past disaster events, the RWC, COVID-19, and the Go to Travel campaign (GTTC) on business. Our findings highlight that although the tourism industry brought economic opportunities, it also increased its vulnerabilities to external shocks, especially in the accommodation industry. Although all accommodations interviewed were negatively affected, their ability to manage its impacts varied. While the RWC brought an increase in tourism, this was quickly overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite its negative impacts on businesses, the government played a key role in reducing its impacts through GTTC.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141232748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to assess the relationship between the effect of the pandemic on the mental health of nurses and its association with their social support needs. Infectious disease pandemics have had a considerable impact on the medical healthcare industry and the global economy, and the construction of a sustainable medical system is essential for overcoming them. This cross-sectional study evaluated 2431 Japanese nurses who completed a survey using three mental health scales for depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress. It was found that the odds of depression were lower among nurses who received sufficient infection prevention measures than those who felt that no preventive measures were implemented. Nurses who sought financial support and support against libel and slander were associated with a high risk of depression. These items were associated with a high risk of anxiety disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder. The increased mental health problems among nurses require evidence-based social support, including countermeasures against infection in hospital, financial support for individual nurses, and support against libel and slander to improve their mental health.
{"title":"Social Support Is Associated with Fewer Mental Health Problems Among Japanese Nurses During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study","authors":"Michihiro Tsubaki, Yoshiyasu Ito, Takafumi Nagashima, Yoko Tsujimoto, Toru Anzai, Susumu Yagome, Hideko Koizumi","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0580","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess the relationship between the effect of the pandemic on the mental health of nurses and its association with their social support needs. Infectious disease pandemics have had a considerable impact on the medical healthcare industry and the global economy, and the construction of a sustainable medical system is essential for overcoming them. This cross-sectional study evaluated 2431 Japanese nurses who completed a survey using three mental health scales for depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress. It was found that the odds of depression were lower among nurses who received sufficient infection prevention measures than those who felt that no preventive measures were implemented. Nurses who sought financial support and support against libel and slander were associated with a high risk of depression. These items were associated with a high risk of anxiety disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder. The increased mental health problems among nurses require evidence-based social support, including countermeasures against infection in hospital, financial support for individual nurses, and support against libel and slander to improve their mental health.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141229695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuta Hara, Takashi Izutsu, Eiko Narita, Koichi Tanaka, Natsuki Soda, Rika Sugata, Daisuke Sasaki, Yuichi Ono
This report is summary of a panel discussion at the World BOSAI Forum held in Sendai in 2023. We invited panelists with diverse backgrounds from the inclusion and diversity frontlines and were able to document their experiences. The panel included a mental health specialist, an employee of a UN agency, working on sexual and reproductive health, a musical producer, persons with disabilities working for the independence of disabled people (a local NGO staff), and a young undergraduate student. First, it was shared that the protection and safety of persons with disabilities in times of disaster is already deemed a responsibility to be implemented by each country as per the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2006. Second, to realize “no one will be left behind,” including women, sexual minorities, and children, three issues, i.e., who is assisting, the importance of human dignity, and the values of arts and culture, as well as two key approaches, i.e., mainstream and targeted actions, were presented. Additionally, the importance of reflecting on the above in national and regional planning during times of normalcy was clarified. All citizens, especially those engaged in the sector of disaster risk reduction, need to learn the frontline of discussions and initiatives on human rights and welfare as well as to reflect on policy and regional planning. This is essential for reducing vulnerability to disasters and building a resilient society.
{"title":"Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction Toward a Society Wherein All People Can Choose How They Live: A Report from a Panel of World BOSAI Forum 2023","authors":"Yuta Hara, Takashi Izutsu, Eiko Narita, Koichi Tanaka, Natsuki Soda, Rika Sugata, Daisuke Sasaki, Yuichi Ono","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0539","url":null,"abstract":"This report is summary of a panel discussion at the World BOSAI Forum held in Sendai in 2023. We invited panelists with diverse backgrounds from the inclusion and diversity frontlines and were able to document their experiences. The panel included a mental health specialist, an employee of a UN agency, working on sexual and reproductive health, a musical producer, persons with disabilities working for the independence of disabled people (a local NGO staff), and a young undergraduate student. First, it was shared that the protection and safety of persons with disabilities in times of disaster is already deemed a responsibility to be implemented by each country as per the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2006. Second, to realize “no one will be left behind,” including women, sexual minorities, and children, three issues, i.e., who is assisting, the importance of human dignity, and the values of arts and culture, as well as two key approaches, i.e., mainstream and targeted actions, were presented. Additionally, the importance of reflecting on the above in national and regional planning during times of normalcy was clarified. All citizens, especially those engaged in the sector of disaster risk reduction, need to learn the frontline of discussions and initiatives on human rights and welfare as well as to reflect on policy and regional planning. This is essential for reducing vulnerability to disasters and building a resilient society.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141229800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The World BOSAI Forum (WBF) is a biennial conference on disaster risk reduction (DRR) that has been held in Sendai, Japan, since 2017. The WBF aims to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), which advocates for diverse participation of stakeholders in DRR. This study examines the efforts and outcomes of the WBF in fostering diverse participation, especially from civil society, in DRR. This study analyzes the transitions in attitude toward diverse participation, participant attributes, and externally dispatched issues over the past three WBFs. It adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data from various sources, such as official documents, in-depth interviews, and text mining. The study finds that the WBF has three main objectives: to disseminate the concept of BOSAI, promote the SFDRR, and encourage the diverse participation of stakeholders, especially civil society, in DRR. The results show that the WBF is gradually increasing its commitment to diverse participation and achieving positive results in encouraging non-expert citizen participation. It is suggested that a detailed analysis of the WBF would contribute to forming a platform with diverse participation, including the participation of non-expert citizens. Conversely, challenges remain in women’s participation, and content analysis is required to choose a platform that promotes diverse forms of participation.
{"title":"Transition of the World BOSAI Forum: Looking Back at the Past Three Forums","authors":"Soraya Ono, Daisuke Sasaki, Yuta Hara, Yuichi Ono","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0512","url":null,"abstract":"The World BOSAI Forum (WBF) is a biennial conference on disaster risk reduction (DRR) that has been held in Sendai, Japan, since 2017. The WBF aims to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), which advocates for diverse participation of stakeholders in DRR. This study examines the efforts and outcomes of the WBF in fostering diverse participation, especially from civil society, in DRR. This study analyzes the transitions in attitude toward diverse participation, participant attributes, and externally dispatched issues over the past three WBFs. It adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data from various sources, such as official documents, in-depth interviews, and text mining. The study finds that the WBF has three main objectives: to disseminate the concept of BOSAI, promote the SFDRR, and encourage the diverse participation of stakeholders, especially civil society, in DRR. The results show that the WBF is gradually increasing its commitment to diverse participation and achieving positive results in encouraging non-expert citizen participation. It is suggested that a detailed analysis of the WBF would contribute to forming a platform with diverse participation, including the participation of non-expert citizens. Conversely, challenges remain in women’s participation, and content analysis is required to choose a platform that promotes diverse forms of participation.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141234310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Naokao Kosaka, Shuji Moriguchi, Akihiro Shibayama, T. Kura, Naoko Shigematsu, Kazuki Okumura, Erick Mas, Makoto Okumura, S. Koshimura, K. Terada, Akinori Fujino, Hiroshi Matsubara, Masaki Hisada
In this paper, we propose a digital model to run an evacuation simulation that reflects the road network blockage caused by the landslide and river flooding damage in Marumori-machi, Miyagi Prefecture, which was severely damaged by Typhoon No. 19 in 2019. In particular, we propose an evacuation agent simulation model that can be extended in the future to scenarios related to disaster response decisions, education, and awareness on the part of residents and can reproduce the evacuation agent situation of a real disaster. The method adjusts a set of parameters of vehicles and pedestrian agents to reproduce the evacuation situation. Then, using the parameter set, we perform the agent simulations under different scenarios varying the time of disaster occurrence and evacuation. Finally, we evaluate the changes in the number of people who have completed their evacuation, the number of victims, etc. The results of the scenarios with different disaster occurrence times showed that the final evacuation rate situation improved by at least 1% (about 170 people who completed evacuation) during daylight time compared to nighttime. The relationship between sunset time and the start of evacuation was qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrated to be supported. It was also confirmed that the evacuation situation did not change much with the time of the evacuation announcement. These results show trends limited to the present study’s disasters and scenarios and do not necessarily provide generalized findings for disaster response. However, the results indicate that applying the proposed methodology to a greater number of disasters and scenario conditions could lead to better analysis and optimization of disaster response. Interviews with government disaster management officials in the target areas suggest that confirming the effectiveness of disaster response while visualizing the distribution of disaster risk in the areas from a bird’s eye view, as in this study, could enhance existing response plans. This approach may also present information comprehensibly for staff and residents who did not experience the disaster firsthand, simulating the experience for better understanding.
{"title":"A Study on Digital Model for Decision-Making in Crisis Response","authors":"Naokao Kosaka, Shuji Moriguchi, Akihiro Shibayama, T. Kura, Naoko Shigematsu, Kazuki Okumura, Erick Mas, Makoto Okumura, S. Koshimura, K. Terada, Akinori Fujino, Hiroshi Matsubara, Masaki Hisada","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0489","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we propose a digital model to run an evacuation simulation that reflects the road network blockage caused by the landslide and river flooding damage in Marumori-machi, Miyagi Prefecture, which was severely damaged by Typhoon No. 19 in 2019. In particular, we propose an evacuation agent simulation model that can be extended in the future to scenarios related to disaster response decisions, education, and awareness on the part of residents and can reproduce the evacuation agent situation of a real disaster. The method adjusts a set of parameters of vehicles and pedestrian agents to reproduce the evacuation situation. Then, using the parameter set, we perform the agent simulations under different scenarios varying the time of disaster occurrence and evacuation. Finally, we evaluate the changes in the number of people who have completed their evacuation, the number of victims, etc. The results of the scenarios with different disaster occurrence times showed that the final evacuation rate situation improved by at least 1% (about 170 people who completed evacuation) during daylight time compared to nighttime. The relationship between sunset time and the start of evacuation was qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrated to be supported. It was also confirmed that the evacuation situation did not change much with the time of the evacuation announcement. These results show trends limited to the present study’s disasters and scenarios and do not necessarily provide generalized findings for disaster response. However, the results indicate that applying the proposed methodology to a greater number of disasters and scenario conditions could lead to better analysis and optimization of disaster response. Interviews with government disaster management officials in the target areas suggest that confirming the effectiveness of disaster response while visualizing the distribution of disaster risk in the areas from a bird’s eye view, as in this study, could enhance existing response plans. This approach may also present information comprehensibly for staff and residents who did not experience the disaster firsthand, simulating the experience for better understanding.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141232315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to quantitatively identify the factors associated with companies that actively enhance the feasibility of public–private partnerships (PPP) during disasters. Based on these identified relationships, the study seeks to propose strategies to improve PPP effectiveness in proactive companies. A questionnaire survey was conducted targeting companies in Japan that have concluded disaster assistance agreements with local governments. Based on the response data, scales were constructed for the following variables: “feasibility of public–private agreements (FPPA),” “experience in implementing public–private agreements (EPPA),” “social contribution to disaster-stricken area,” “implementation level of disaster risk reduction measures,” “feasibility of business continuity,” “organizational culture toward risk and crisis (OCRC),” and “employee autonomy (EA).” Path analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships between FPPA and other variables. The results revealed that FPPA is associated with EPPA, EA, and OCRC. In terms of strategies to improve FPPA, it was suggested to promote the internal sharing of information about EPPA from other companies. Additionally, for EA and OCRC, implementing human resource policies and management practices was discussed as potential measures.
{"title":"Factors Contributing to the Enhancement of Feasibility in Public–Private Partnership During Disasters","authors":"Tetsuya Torayashiki, Kenji Watanabe","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0570","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to quantitatively identify the factors associated with companies that actively enhance the feasibility of public–private partnerships (PPP) during disasters. Based on these identified relationships, the study seeks to propose strategies to improve PPP effectiveness in proactive companies. A questionnaire survey was conducted targeting companies in Japan that have concluded disaster assistance agreements with local governments. Based on the response data, scales were constructed for the following variables: “feasibility of public–private agreements (FPPA),” “experience in implementing public–private agreements (EPPA),” “social contribution to disaster-stricken area,” “implementation level of disaster risk reduction measures,” “feasibility of business continuity,” “organizational culture toward risk and crisis (OCRC),” and “employee autonomy (EA).” Path analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships between FPPA and other variables. The results revealed that FPPA is associated with EPPA, EA, and OCRC. In terms of strategies to improve FPPA, it was suggested to promote the internal sharing of information about EPPA from other companies. Additionally, for EA and OCRC, implementing human resource policies and management practices was discussed as potential measures.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141233269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Noriko Uchida, S. Seto, A. Suppasri, Takahiro Ono, Makoto Kobayashi, M. Yasuda, Fumika Iitoyo, Keiko Itabashi, Fumihiko Imamura
Building a resilient society is key to preparing for disasters beyond the planned scale. To achieve this, it is necessary to create a clear common understanding of what “resilient” disaster management means and to consider concrete methods to accelerate its social implementation. However, few opportunities have occurred to have these discussions with diverse stakeholders. Therefore, a panel discussion was held to consider the type of cooperation required to build a resilient society. Each speaker provided information from various perspectives, including emergency information, disaster prevention education, and scientific knowledge on the mechanism of tsunamis, and their impact on ecosystems. Based on the above, the panel discussion confirmed the need for various elements such as infrastructure, information, rules, and social structure. In particular, it is necessary to develop consistency with existing safety standards for disaster prevention using ecosystems. It was suggested that, in addition to the practice of education, cooperation with the media, which keeps up-to-date information on a long-term basis, is indispensable for raising awareness of disaster prevention. This panel discussion emphasized that disaster reduction is a difficult field for companies to enter and commercialize, however, it was emphasized that it is indispensable worldwide.
{"title":"Panel Discussion in WBF 2023: New Collaboration for Building a Resilient Society","authors":"Noriko Uchida, S. Seto, A. Suppasri, Takahiro Ono, Makoto Kobayashi, M. Yasuda, Fumika Iitoyo, Keiko Itabashi, Fumihiko Imamura","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0523","url":null,"abstract":"Building a resilient society is key to preparing for disasters beyond the planned scale. To achieve this, it is necessary to create a clear common understanding of what “resilient” disaster management means and to consider concrete methods to accelerate its social implementation. However, few opportunities have occurred to have these discussions with diverse stakeholders. Therefore, a panel discussion was held to consider the type of cooperation required to build a resilient society. Each speaker provided information from various perspectives, including emergency information, disaster prevention education, and scientific knowledge on the mechanism of tsunamis, and their impact on ecosystems. Based on the above, the panel discussion confirmed the need for various elements such as infrastructure, information, rules, and social structure. In particular, it is necessary to develop consistency with existing safety standards for disaster prevention using ecosystems. It was suggested that, in addition to the practice of education, cooperation with the media, which keeps up-to-date information on a long-term basis, is indispensable for raising awareness of disaster prevention. This panel discussion emphasized that disaster reduction is a difficult field for companies to enter and commercialize, however, it was emphasized that it is indispensable worldwide.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141231306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Ishiwatari, Miho Ohara, K. A. Razak, Masashi Inoue, Xiang Zheng, Rajib Shaw
Disasters affect multiple sectors; therefore, the need for interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts becomes increasingly apparent. The session “Transdisciplinary Approach: Toward Innovative Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction” aimed to explore the importance and need for a transdisciplinary approach toward advancing disaster risk reduction and recovery. The approach can provide a systematic framework for organizing knowledge and perspectives across different disciplines. Panelists from different countries presented concepts and case studies to illustrate the effectiveness and challenges of this approach. Through presentations and discussions, it was found that this approach can foster innovation and inclusiveness, and that the data generated by science and technology are crucial for the formulation of disaster risk reduction policies.
{"title":"Transdisciplinary Approach: Toward Innovative Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction","authors":"M. Ishiwatari, Miho Ohara, K. A. Razak, Masashi Inoue, Xiang Zheng, Rajib Shaw","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0534","url":null,"abstract":"Disasters affect multiple sectors; therefore, the need for interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts becomes increasingly apparent. The session “Transdisciplinary Approach: Toward Innovative Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction” aimed to explore the importance and need for a transdisciplinary approach toward advancing disaster risk reduction and recovery. The approach can provide a systematic framework for organizing knowledge and perspectives across different disciplines. Panelists from different countries presented concepts and case studies to illustrate the effectiveness and challenges of this approach. Through presentations and discussions, it was found that this approach can foster innovation and inclusiveness, and that the data generated by science and technology are crucial for the formulation of disaster risk reduction policies.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141232314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Aroyandini, Supriyadi, A. Rusilowati, Hartono, Juhadi
Disaster problems in Indonesia are complex. Apart from geographically having a high risk of disaster, community disaster literacy is low. Moreover, innovation in disaster matters is lacking, owing to the lack of 21st century skills. Further, disaster literacy and 21st century skills of prospective science teachers in Indonesia are inadequate. This study assumes that a disaster education model for prospective science teachers must be developed. Therefore, this assumption needs to be proven by conducting a needs analysis before developing the model. This study aimed to analyze the needs for the development of the Problem-Based Learning Cycle-Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics-Disaster (PBLC-STEM-D) disaster education model through a sequential-exploratory research design and thereafter develop the initial model with the analysis, design, and development stages. The results of the study revealed that it is necessary to develop the PBLC-STEM-D disaster education model for prospective science teachers. Therefore, the model was developed conceptually.
{"title":"Disaster Education Model for Prospective Science Teachers: Needs Analysis and Initial Development","authors":"E. Aroyandini, Supriyadi, A. Rusilowati, Hartono, Juhadi","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0560","url":null,"abstract":"Disaster problems in Indonesia are complex. Apart from geographically having a high risk of disaster, community disaster literacy is low. Moreover, innovation in disaster matters is lacking, owing to the lack of 21st century skills. Further, disaster literacy and 21st century skills of prospective science teachers in Indonesia are inadequate. This study assumes that a disaster education model for prospective science teachers must be developed. Therefore, this assumption needs to be proven by conducting a needs analysis before developing the model. This study aimed to analyze the needs for the development of the Problem-Based Learning Cycle-Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics-Disaster (PBLC-STEM-D) disaster education model through a sequential-exploratory research design and thereafter develop the initial model with the analysis, design, and development stages. The results of the study revealed that it is necessary to develop the PBLC-STEM-D disaster education model for prospective science teachers. Therefore, the model was developed conceptually.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141234073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An adequate provision of medical supplies is critical in the battle against pandemics, such as the ongoing one against COVID-19. First, this paper proposes a generalized analysis based on the fluctuation period of emergency material demand. Second, the nonlinear problem in the low-dimensional space is transformed into a linear problem in the high-dimensional feature space by using the support vector machine method, constructing a combined forecasting model of time series and support vector machines. Lastly, the daily demand of specific protective masks donated by the Wuhan COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters in the period from February 1 to March 16, 2020 is predicted through the use of data from the Wuhan Red Cross. Compared with traditional linear time series forecasting models, the proposed forecasting model sees its accuracy increased by 37.55%, with the relative errors of mean square error, average absolute error, and average absolute error percentage being respectively reduced by 37.57%, 60.88%, and 37.86%. It transpires that the ARIMA–SVM combined model is able to make full use of the potential information implied in the original data. The decision-making process provides a reference point for the forecast of the demand of medical emergency materials in future major public health emergencies.
{"title":"Research on the Forecast of Emergency Supplies for Major Public Health Emergencies - An Empirical Study Based on the Distribution of Donated Facial Masks by the Wuhan COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters","authors":"Xiaoxin Zhu, Zhimin Wen, David Regan, Wenlong Zhu","doi":"10.20965/jdr.2024.p0551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0551","url":null,"abstract":"An adequate provision of medical supplies is critical in the battle against pandemics, such as the ongoing one against COVID-19. First, this paper proposes a generalized analysis based on the fluctuation period of emergency material demand. Second, the nonlinear problem in the low-dimensional space is transformed into a linear problem in the high-dimensional feature space by using the support vector machine method, constructing a combined forecasting model of time series and support vector machines. Lastly, the daily demand of specific protective masks donated by the Wuhan COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters in the period from February 1 to March 16, 2020 is predicted through the use of data from the Wuhan Red Cross. Compared with traditional linear time series forecasting models, the proposed forecasting model sees its accuracy increased by 37.55%, with the relative errors of mean square error, average absolute error, and average absolute error percentage being respectively reduced by 37.57%, 60.88%, and 37.86%. It transpires that the ARIMA–SVM combined model is able to make full use of the potential information implied in the original data. The decision-making process provides a reference point for the forecast of the demand of medical emergency materials in future major public health emergencies.","PeriodicalId":46831,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Disaster Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141231296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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