Agricultural adaptation and resilience through climatic shifts in semi-arid India: 2000 years of archaeobotanical evidence from Vadnagar, Gujarat

The relationship between historical climate change and past agricultural production contributes to a better understanding of the impacts of projected climate change by providing empirical data for resilient human responses. This study explores the periods of dynastic transitions and crop production at the urban site of Vadnagar, in semi-arid northwest India through several climate events, generally characterised by weakening summer monsoon precipitation during the Late Holocene. Artefacts from the site present an unbroken sequence of seven successive cultures from the first century BCE to the nineteenth century CE. Archaeobotanical data indicate the sufficient water availability during the Historic and Medieval periods, allowing crop production dominated large-grained cereals (C₃ plants). However, during the Post-Medieval period (ca.1300−1850 CE) a resilient crop economy based on small-grained cereals (C₄ plants) dominated, representing a human adaptation to prolonged weakening of monsoonal precipitation. Isotopic and phytolith data at the site present a clear signal of changing local environmental conditions over two millennia, consistent with regional palaeoclimate records, providing and interpretive context for agricultural evidence at Vadnagar. Despite long-term reduction in summer humidity, we argue that an adaptable agricultural package coupled with suitable water management systems allowed for the resilience of the urban settlement at Vadnagar.