分析尼日利亚金融创新与货币需求关系的非线性方法

E. Ogbaro, C. Olaniyi, Oluwasegun Eseyin, B. C. Olopade
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摘要

本研究利用 1981-2020 年期间的年度数据,研究了金融创新在尼日利亚货币需求函数中的不对称作用。目的是深入了解金融创新的变化如何促进了货币需求函数的水平和稳定性。研究质疑了现有文献的基本假设,即金融创新的增长趋势会对国家的货币需求产生对称或线性的影响。因此,研究采用了非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)的边界检验程序,以及递归残差累积和以及递归残差累积平方和检验。结果表明,金融创新与货币需求之间的联系是非对称的,在两个偏和变量中,只有金融创新的正向变化才会产生显著影响,并且在短期和长期中的符号都是正的。这表明,现有研究中关于金融创新的线性和非对称结构的假设存在一定的误导性。研究结果还证实,由于引入了金融创新的非对称效应,尼日利亚的货币需求保持稳定。研究得出结论,金融创新与货币需求之间的关系是非对称的,一旦在这种关系中捕捉到非对称或非线性,该国的货币需求函数就会保持稳定。因此,研究建议货币当局在制定货币需求政策时需要关注金融创新的积极变化,以提高货币政策作为稳定经济工具的有效性和可靠性。
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A Nonlinear Approach to the Analysis of the Financial Innovation-Money Demand Nexus in Nigeria
This study examines the asymmetric roles of financial innovation in the money demand function in Nigeria using annual data over the period 1981-2020. This is with a view to providing insight into how changes in financial innovation have contributed to the level and stability of the money demand function. The study questions the fundamental assumption of the existing literature that growing trends in financial innovation have symmetric or linear effects on the country’s money demand. Hence, it adopts the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) with bounds testing procedure together with the cumulative sum of recursive as well as the cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals tests. Results show that the link between financial innovation and money demand is asymmetric and that of the two partial sum variables, only positive changes in financial innovation have significant effects with the sign being positive in both the short run and long run. This shows that assumptions of linearity and no asymmetric structure reported in extant studies for financial innovation are somewhat misleading. Findings also confirm the stability of demand for money in Nigeria on account of the introduction of asymmetric effects of financial innovation. The study concludes that the financial innovation-money demand nexus is asymmetric and that there is stability in the country’s money demand function once asymmetry or nonlinearity is captured in the nexus. Therefore, it recommends the need for monetary authorities to pay attention to positive changes in financial innovation when policies on money demand are formulated for the purpose of enhancing the effectiveness and reliability of monetary policy as a tool for stabilising the economy.
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期刊介绍: Journal of environmental science and economics (JESCAE), ISSN: 2832-6032 is an open access peer-reviewed journal that considers articles and reviews articles on all aspects of environmental economics. Aim and Scope Journal of Environmental Science and Economics is an international scholarly refereed research journal that aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental economics, Sustainability research, technological innovation, and economics. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes; peer-reviewed original research articles, case, and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science, sustainability, technological innovations, and economics. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not limited to; Environmental pollution control and abatement technology, Sustainable and economic Development, sustainable consumption and Sustainability, Environmental and sustainability assessment, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and non-point sources pollution, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.
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