Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin, China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage (ECS), particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate. In this study, we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin, China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model based on land use data. We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios: natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector (Geodetector). Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10⁶ t in 2010, followed by a decreasing trend to 2050. The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, and low values in the western and northern parts. Between 1985 and 2020, land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land, woodland, and construction land at the expense of unused land. The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios (ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS) would be lower than that in 2020. Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS, with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors. Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.