Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool

Abstract. Cyclonic vortices that are weaker than tropical storm category can bring heavy precipitation as they propagate across the South China Sea and surrounding countries. Here we investigate the structure and dynamics responsible for the intensification of a Borneo vortex that moved from the north of Borneo across the South China Sea and impacted Vietnam and Thailand in late October 2018. This case study is examined using Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations and a semi-geotriptic (SGT) balance approximation tool. Satellite observations and a MetUM simulation with 4.4 km grid initialised at 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2018 show that the westward-moving vortex is characterised by a coherent maximum in total column water and by a comma-shaped precipitation structure with the heaviest rainfall to the northwest of the circulation centre. The Borneo vortex comprises a low-level cyclonic circulation and a mid-level wave embedded in the background easterly shear flow, which strengthens with height up to around 7 km. Despite being in the tropics at 6∘ N, the low-level vortex and mid-level wave are well represented by SGT balance dynamics. The mid-level wave propagates along a vertical gradient in moist stability, i.e. the product between the specific humidity and the static stability, at 4.5 to 5 km and is characterised by a coherent signature in the potential vorticity, meridional wind, and balanced vertical velocity fields. The vertical motion is dominated by coupling with diabatic heating and is shifted relative to the potential vorticity so that the diabatic wave propagates westwards, relative to the flow, at a rate consistent with prediction from moist semi-geostrophic theory. Initial vortex development at low levels is consistent with baroclinic growth initiated by the mid-level diabatic Rossby wave, which propagates on baroclinic shear flow on the southern flank of a large-scale cold surge.