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Exploring the daytime boundary layer evolution based on Doppler spectrum width from multiple coplanar wind lidars during CROSSINN 根据 CROSSINN 期间多个共面风激光雷达的多普勒频谱宽度探索白天边界层的演变情况
Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-609-2024
Nevio Babić, B. Adler, A. Gohm, Manuela Lehner, N. Kalthoff
Abstract. Over heterogeneous, mountainous terrain, the determination of spatial heterogeneity of any type of a turbulent layer has been known to pose substantial challenges in mountain meteorology. In addition to the combined effect in which buoyancy and shear contribute to the turbulence intensity of such layers, it is well known that mountains add an additional degree of complexity via non-local transport mechanisms, compared to flatter topography. It is therefore the aim of this study to determine the vertical depths of both daytime convectively and shear-driven boundary layers within a fairly wide and deep Alpine valley during summertime. Specifically, three Doppler lidars deployed during the CROSSINN (Cross-valley flow in the Inn Valley investigated by dual-Doppler lidar measurements) campaign within a single week in August 2019 are used to this end, as they were deployed along a transect nearly perpendicular to the along-valley axis. To achieve this, a bottom-up exceedance threshold method based on turbulent Doppler spectrum width sampled by the three lidars has been developed and validated against a more traditional bulk Richardson number approach applied to radiosonde profiles obtained above the valley floor. The method was found to adequately capture the depths of convective turbulent boundary layers at a 1 min temporal and 50 m spatial resolution across the valley, with the degree of ambiguity increasing once surface convection decayed and upvalley flows gained in intensity over the course of the afternoon and evening hours. Analysis of four intensive observation period (IOP) events elucidated three regimes of the daytime mountain boundary layer in this section of the Inn Valley. Each of the three regimes has been analysed as a function of surface sensible heat flux H, upper-level valley stability Γ, and upper-level subsidence wL estimated with the coplanar retrieval method. Finally, the positioning of the three Doppler lidars in a cross-valley configuration enabled one of the most highly spatially and temporally resolved observational convective boundary layer depth data sets during daytime and over complex terrain to date.
摘要众所周知,在多山的异质地形上,确定任何类型湍流层的空间异质性都会给山区气象学带来巨大挑战。除了浮力和剪切力共同作用导致湍流层的湍流强度外,众所周知,与较平坦的地形相比,山区通过非本地传输机制增加了额外的复杂性。因此,本研究的目的是确定夏季阿尔卑斯山谷中相当宽和深的白天对流和剪切驱动边界层的垂直深度。具体而言,本研究利用了在 2019 年 8 月的一周内开展的 CROSSINN(通过双多普勒激光雷达测量研究 Inn 山谷的跨谷流)活动中部署的三个多普勒激光雷达,因为它们是沿着几乎垂直于沿谷轴线的横断面部署的。为此,开发了一种自下而上的超标阈值方法,该方法基于三个激光雷达采样的湍流多普勒频谱宽度,并与应用于谷底上方雷达探测剖面的更传统的体理查森数方法进行了验证。结果发现,该方法能以 1 分钟的时间分辨率和 50 米的空间分辨率充分捕捉到山谷中对流湍流边界层的深度,而在下午和傍晚时分,一旦地表对流衰减,上谷气流强度增强,模糊程度就会增加。对四次强化观测期(IOP)事件的分析阐明了茵茵河谷这一段白天山地边界层的三种状态。这三种状态分别作为地表显热通量 H、高层山谷稳定性 Γ 和共面检索法估算的高层下沉 wL 的函数进行了分析。最后,通过将三个多普勒激光雷达置于跨谷配置中,获得了迄今为止空间和时间分辨率最高的白天和复杂地形对流边界层深度观测数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding winter windstorm predictability over Europe 了解欧洲冬季风暴的可预测性
Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-587-2024
L. Degenhardt, G. Leckebusch, Adam A. Scaife
Abstract. Winter windstorms belong to the most damaging meteorological events in the extra-tropics. Their impact on society makes it essential to understand and improve seasonal forecasts of these extreme events. Skilful predictions on a seasonal timescale have been shown in previous studies by investigating hindcasts from various forecast centres. This study aims to explain storm forecast skill based on relevant dynamical factors. Therefore, a number of factors which are known to influence either windstorms directly or their synoptic relevant systems, mid-latitude cyclones, are investigated. These factors are analysed for their relation to windstorm forecast performance based on a reanalysis (ERA5) and the seasonal hindcast of the UK Met Office (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5, GloSea5). Within GloSea5, relevant dynamical factors are (1) validated with respect to their physical connections to windstorms, (2) investigated with respect to the seasonal forecast skill of the factors themselves, and (3) assessed on the relevance and influence of their forecast performance to and on windstorm forecast skill. Although not all investigated factors reveal a clear and consistent influence on windstorm forecast skill over Europe, core factors like mean sea level pressure gradient, sea surface temperature, equivalent potential temperature and Eady growth rate show consistent results within these three steps: their physical connection is well represented in the model; these factors are skilfully predicted in storm-relevant regions, and, consequently, this skill leads to increased forecast skill of winter windstorms over Europe. This study thus explains existing forecast skill in winter windstorms but also indicates potential for further model developments to improve seasonal winter windstorm predictions.
摘要冬季暴风属于热带以外地区最具破坏性的气象事件。它们对社会的影响使得了解和改进这些极端事件的季节预报变得至关重要。以前的研究通过调查来自不同预报中心的后报,显示了在季节时间尺度上的娴熟预报能力。本研究旨在解释基于相关动态因素的风暴预报技能。因此,研究了一些已知会直接影响暴风或其同步相关系统--中纬度气旋的因素。根据再分析(ERA5)和英国气象局的季节后报(全球季节预报系统第 5 版,GloSea5),分析了这些因素与风暴预报性能的关系。在 GloSea5 中,相关的动力学因子(1)验证了它们与风暴的物理联系,(2)调查了这些因子本身的季节预报技能,(3)评估了它们的预报性能与风暴预报技能的相关性和影响。虽然并非所有被调查的因素都对欧洲上空的暴风预报技能有明确而一致的影响,但平均海平面气压梯度、海面温度、等效潜在温度和 Eady 增长率等核心因素在这三个步骤中显示出一致的结果:它们之间的物理联系在模型中得到了很好的体现;这些因素在风暴相关区域得到了娴熟的预测,因此,这种技能提高了欧洲上空冬季暴风的预报技能。因此,这项研究解释了现有的冬季暴风预测技术,同时也指出了进一步开发模型以改进季节性冬季暴风预测的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
How heating tracers drive self-lofting long-lived stratospheric anticyclones: simple dynamical models 加热示踪剂如何驱动自漂浮的长寿命平流层反气旋:简单动力学模型
Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-559-2024
Kasturi S. Shah, Peter H. Haynes
Abstract. Long-lived “bubbles” of wildfire smoke or volcanic aerosol have recently been observed in the stratosphere, co-located with ozone, carbon monoxide, and water vapour anomalies. These bubbles often survive for several weeks, during which time they ascend through vertical distances of 15 km or more. Meteorological analysis data suggest that this aerosol is contained within strong, persistent anticyclonic vortices. Absorption of solar radiation by the aerosol is hypothesised to drive the ascent of the bubbles, but the dynamics of how this heating gives rise to a single-sign anticyclonic vorticity anomaly have thus far been unclear. We present a description of heating-driven stratospheric vortices, based on an axisymmetric balanced model. The simplest version of this model includes a specified localised heating moving upwards at fixed velocity and produces a steadily translating solution with a single-signed anticyclonic vortex co-located with the heating, with corresponding temperature anomalies forming a vertical dipole, matching observations. A more complex version includes the two-way interaction between a heating tracer, representing the aerosol, and the dynamics. An evolving tracer provides heating which drives a secondary circulation, and this in turn transports the tracer. Through this two-way interaction an initial distribution of tracer drives a circulation and forms a self-lofting tracer-filled anticyclonic vortex. Scaling arguments show that upward velocity is proportional to heating magnitude, but the magnitude of peak quasigeostrophic vorticity is O(f) (f is the Coriolis parameter) and independent of the heating magnitude. Estimates of vorticity from observations match our theoretical predictions. We discuss 3-D effects such as vortex stripping and dispersion of tracer outside the vortex by the large-scale flow, which cannot be captured explicitly by the axisymmetric model and are likely to be important in the real atmosphere. The large O(f) vorticity of the fully developed anticyclones explains their observed persistence and their effective confinement of tracers. To further investigate the early stages of formation of tracer-filled vortices, we consider an idealised configuration of a homogeneous tracer layer. A linearised calculation reveals that the upper part of the layer is destabilised due to the decrease in tracer concentrations with height there, which sets up a self-reinforcing effect where upward lofting of tracer results in stronger heating and hence stronger lofting. Small amplitude disturbances form isolated tracer plumes that ascend out of the initial layer, indicative of a self-organisation of the flow. The relevance of these idealised models to formation and persistence of tracer-filled vortices in the real atmosphere is discussed, and it is suggested that a key factor in their formation is the time taken to reach the fully developed stage, which is shorter for strong heating rates.
摘要最近在平流层观测到了与臭氧、一氧化碳和水蒸气异常共存的长寿命野火烟雾或火山气溶胶 "气泡"。这些气泡通常会存活数周,在此期间,它们会垂直上升 15 千米或更远。气象分析数据表明,这些气溶胶包含在强烈、持久的反气旋漩涡中。气溶胶对太阳辐射的吸收被假定为气泡上升的驱动力,但这种加热如何导致单一符号的反气旋涡度异常的动力学至今还不清楚。我们以轴对称平衡模型为基础,对加热驱动的平流层涡进行了描述。该模型的最简单版本包括以固定速度向上移动的特定局部加热,并产生一个稳定的平移解,其中单符号反气旋涡旋与加热同位,相应的温度异常形成垂直偶极,与观测结果相吻合。更复杂的版本包括代表气溶胶的加热示踪剂与动力学之间的双向互动。不断变化的示踪剂提供热量,驱动次级环流,次级环流反过来又输送示踪剂。通过这种双向互动,示踪剂的初始分布推动了环流,并形成了一个自悬浮的充满示踪剂的反气旋涡。缩放论证表明,上升速度与加热幅度成正比,但准逆温涡度的峰值为 O(f)(f 为科里奥利参数),与加热幅度无关。观测得出的涡度估计值与我们的理论预测值相吻合。我们讨论了三维效应,如涡旋剥离和大尺度流对涡旋外示踪剂的分散,轴对称模型无法明确捕捉到这些效应,而这些效应在真实大气中可能非常重要。充分发展的反气旋的大 O(f)涡度解释了观测到的反气旋的持续性及其对示踪剂的有效限制。为了进一步研究充满示踪剂的涡旋形成的早期阶段,我们考虑了均匀示踪剂层的理想化配置。线性化计算显示,该层上部由于示踪剂浓度随高度降低而不稳定,从而产生了自我强化效应,即示踪剂的上浮导致更强的加热,从而产生更强的上浮。小振幅扰动形成孤立的示踪剂羽流,从初始层上升,表明气流的自组织。我们讨论了这些理想化模型与真实大气中充满示踪剂的涡旋的形成和持续存在的相关性,并认为形成涡旋的一个关键因素是达到完全发展阶段所需的时间,而在强加热速率下,时间会更短。
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引用次数: 0
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5 暖输送带的特征及其对热带气旋生命周期的影响:基于ERA5的案例研究和气候学分析
Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024
K. Heitmann, M. Sprenger, Hanin Binder, H. Wernli, H. Joos
Abstract. This study presents a systematic investigation of the characteristics and meteorological impacts of warm conveyor belts (WCBs). For this purpose, we compile a new WCB climatology (1980–2022) of trajectories calculated with the most recent reanalysis dataset ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Based on this new climatology, two-dimensional masks are defined that represent the inflow, ascent, and outflow locations of WCBs. These masks are then used to objectively quantify the key characteristics (intensity, ascent rate, and ascent curvature) and meteorological impacts (precipitation and potential vorticity (PV) anomalies) of WCBs in order to (i) attribute them to different stages in the life cycle of the associated cyclones and to (ii) evaluate differences in the outflow of the cyclonic and anticyclonic branches. The approach was applied globally, but this study focuses on the North Atlantic, one of the regions where WCBs ascend most frequently. The method is first tested and illustrated through three case studies of well-documented cyclones, revealing both the similarities and the case-to-case variability in the evolution of the WCB characteristics and impacts. We then extend the analysis to about 5000 cyclones that occurred in winter between 1980–2022 in the North Atlantic. The case studies and the climatological analysis both show that WCBs are typically most intense (in terms of air mass transported, ascent rate, precipitation rate, and volume) during the intensification period of the associated cyclone. The northward displacement along the storm track and diabatic PV production lead to an increase in low-level PV in the region of WCB ascent during the cyclone life cycle. The negative PV anomaly at upper levels, associated with the WCB outflow, remains relatively constant. The investigation of the WCB branches reveals an increasing intensity of the cyclonic WCB branch with time, linked to the increasing strength of the cyclonic wind field around the cyclone. Due to a lower altitude, the outflow of the cyclonic WCB branch is associated with a weaker negative PV anomaly than the anticyclonic one, which ascends to higher altitudes. In summary, this study highlights the distinct evolution of WCB characteristics and impacts during the cyclone life cycle and the marked differences between the cyclonic and anticyclonic branches.
摘要本研究对暖传送带(WCB)的特征和气象影响进行了系统研究。为此,我们利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的最新再分析数据集 ERA5 计算出的轨迹,编制了新的 WCB 气候图(1980-2022 年)。根据这一新的气候学,定义了二维掩码,代表了 WCB 的流入、上升和流出位置。然后,利用这些掩模客观地量化 WCB 的主要特征(强度、上升速率和上升曲率)和气象影响(降水和潜在涡度 (PV) 异常),以便 (i) 将其归属于相关气旋生命周期的不同阶段,以及 (ii) 评估气旋和反气旋分支流出的差异。该方法适用于全球,但本研究的重点是北大西洋,它是 WCB 上升最频繁的区域之一。该方法首先通过三个有据可查的气旋案例研究进行了测试和说明,揭示了 WCB 特征和影响演变的相似性和个案间的可变性。然后,我们将分析扩展到 1980-2022 年间北大西洋冬季发生的约 5000 个气旋。案例研究和气候学分析均表明,WCB 通常在相关气旋的增强期最为强烈(就输送的气团、上升速率、降水速率和体积而言)。在气旋生命周期内,沿风暴轨道向北的位移和二重PV的产生导致WCB上升区域的低层PV增加。与 WCB 流出相关的高层负 PV 异常值保持相对稳定。对 WCB 支流的研究表明,随着时间的推移,气旋 WCB 支流的强度不断增加,这与气旋周围气旋风场强度的增加有关。由于海拔较低,气旋性 WCB 支流的外流与上升到较高海拔的反气旋性 WCB 支流相比,负 PV 异常较弱。总之,这项研究强调了气旋生命周期中 WCB 特性和影响的明显演变,以及气旋和反气旋分支之间的显著差异。
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引用次数: 2
Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models 利用替代模型量化西非季风模拟的不确定性
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-511-2024
Matthias Fischer, P. Knippertz, Roderick van der Linden, Alexander Lemburg, Gregor Pante, Carsten Proppe, J. Marsham
Abstract. Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system using numerical weather and climate models suffers from large uncertainties, which are difficult to assess due to nonlinear interactions between different components of the WAM. Here we present a fundamentally new approach to the problem by approximating the behavior of a numerical model – here the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model – through a statistical surrogate model based on universal kriging, a general form of Gaussian process regression, which allows for a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis. The main steps of our analysis are as follows: (i) identify the most important uncertain model parameters and their probability density functions, for which we employ a new strategy dealing with non-uniformity in the kriging process. (ii) Define quantities of interest (QoIs) that represent general meteorological fields, such as temperature, pressure, cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the prominent WAM features, namely the tropical easterly jet, African easterly jet, Saharan heat low (SHL) and intertropical discontinuity. (iii) Apply a sampling strategy with regard to the kriging method to identify model parameter combinations which are used for numerical modeling experiments. (iv) Conduct ICON model runs for identified model parameter combinations over a nested limited-area domain from 28° W to 34° E and from 10° S to 34° N. The simulations are run for August in 4 different years (2016 to 2019) to capture the peak northward penetration of rainfall into West Africa, and QoIs are computed based on the mean response over the whole month in all years. (v) Quantify sensitivity of QoIs to uncertain model parameters in an integrated and a local analysis. The results show that simple isolated relationships between single model parameters and WAM QoIs rarely exist. Changing individual parameters affects multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical links between them and the complexity of the WAM system. The entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of ice particles show the greatest effects on the QoIs. Larger values of these two parameters reduce cloud cover and precipitation and intensify the SHL. The entrainment rate primarily affects 2 m temperature and 2 m dew point temperature and causes latitudinal shifts, whereas the terminal fall velocity of ice mostly affects cloud cover. Furthermore, the parameter that controls the evaporative soil surface has a major effect on 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point temperature and cloud cover. The results highlight the usefulness of surrogate models for the analysis of model uncertainty and open up new opportunities to better constrain model parameters through a comparison of the model output with selected observations.
摘要使用天气和气候数值模式模拟西非季风(WAM)系统存在很大的不确定性,由于西非季风系统不同组成部分之间的非线性相互作用,这些不确定性很难评估。在这里,我们提出了一种解决这一问题的全新方法,即通过基于通用克里金(高斯过程回归的一种一般形式)的统计替代模型,对数值模式(这里是二十面体非流体静力学(ICON)模式)的行为进行近似,从而进行全面的全球敏感性分析。我们分析的主要步骤如下:(i) 确定最重要的不确定模型参数及其概率密度函数,为此我们采用了一种新策略来处理克里金过程中的不均匀性。(ii) 确定代表一般气象领域(如温度、气压、云量和降水)的相关量(QoIs),以及世界气象组织的显著特征,即热带东风喷流、非洲东风喷流、撒哈拉热低层(SHL)和热带间不连续性。(iii) 采用克里格法采样策略,确定用于数值模拟实验的模式参数组合。(iv) 在西经 28 度至东经 34 度和南纬 10 度至北纬 34 度的嵌套有限区域内,对确定的模式参数组合进行 ICON 模式运行。模拟在 4 个不同年份(2016 年至 2019 年)的 8 月份进行,以捕捉降雨向北渗透到西非的峰值,并根据所有年份整个月份的平均响应计算 QoIs。(v) 在综合和局部分析中量化 QoIs 对不确定模型参数的敏感性。结果表明,单一模型参数与水文学气象学质量指标之间很少存在简单孤立的关系。改变单个参数会同时影响多个质量指标,这反映了它们之间的物理联系和水文学测量系统的复杂性。对流方案中的夹带率和冰颗粒的末端下落速度对质量指标的影响最大。这两个参数值越大,云量和降水量越少,SHL 越强。夹带率主要影响 2 米温度和 2 米露点温度,并导致纬度偏移,而冰粒末端下落速度主要影响云量。此外,控制土壤蒸发面的参数对 2 米气温、2 米露点温度和云量有很大影响。这些结果凸显了代用模式在分析模式不确定性方面的作用,并为通过比较模式输出与选定观测数据来更好地约束模式参数提供了新的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS 无线电探测仪观测数据对 ECMWF IFS 中纬度对流层顶的锐度和高度的影响
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024
Konstantin Krüger, A. Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, George C. Craig
Abstract. Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction systems insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Data assimilation may provide a means to improve tropopause structure by correcting the erroneous background forecast towards the observations. In this paper, the influence of assimilating radiosonde observations on tropopause structure, i.e., the sharpness and altitude, is investigated in the ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. We evaluate 9729 midlatitude radiosondes launched during 1 month in autumn 2016. About 500 of these radiosondes, launched on request during the North Atlantic Waveguide Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) field campaign, are used to set up an observing system experiment (OSE) that comprises two assimilation forecast experiments, one run with and one without the non-operational soundings. The influence on the tropopause is assessed in a statistical, tropopause-relative evaluation of observation departures of temperature, static stability (N2), wind speed, and wind shear from the background forecast and the analysis. Temperature is overestimated by the background at the tropopause (warm bias, ∼ 1 K) and underestimated in the lower stratosphere (cold bias, −0.3 K) leading to an underestimation of the abrupt increase in N2 at the tropopause. The increments (differences in analysis and background) reduce these background biases and improve tropopause sharpness. Profiles with sharper tropopause exhibit stronger background biases but also an increased positive influence of the observations on temperature and N2 in the analysis. Wind speed is underestimated in the background, especially in the upper troposphere (∼ 1 m s−1), but the assimilation improves the wind profile. For the strongest winds the background bias is roughly halved. The positive influence on the analysis wind profile is associated with an improved vertical distribution of wind shear, particularly in the lower stratosphere. We furthermore detect a shift in the analysis tropopause altitude towards the observations. The evaluation of the OSE highlights that the diagnosed tropopause sharpening can be primarily attributed to the radiosondes. This study shows that data assimilation improves wind and temperature gradients across the tropopause, but the sharpening is small compared with the model biases. Hence, the analysis still systematically underestimates tropopause sharpness which may negatively impact weather and climate forecasts.
摘要当前数值天气预报系统的初始条件不能充分反映中纬度对流层顶的急剧垂直梯度。数据同化可提供一种手段,通过向观测数据修正错误的背景预报来改善对流层顶结构。本文在 ECMWF 的综合预报系统中研究了无线电探空仪观测数据同化对对流层顶结构(即锐度和高度)的影响。我们对2016年秋季1个月内发射的9729个中纬度无线电探空仪进行了评估。其中约500个无线电探空仪是在北大西洋波导下游影响实验(NAWDEX)实地活动期间应要求发射的,用于建立观测系统实验(OSE),该实验包括两个同化预报实验,一个有非业务探空仪运行,另一个没有。通过对温度、静态稳定度(N2)、风速和风切变的观测偏离背景预报和分析的统计、对流层顶相关评估,评估了对流层顶的影响。对流层顶的温度被背景预报高估了(暖偏差,∼ 1 K),而平流层下部的温度被低估了(冷偏差,-0.3 K),导致对流层顶 N2 的突然增加被低估。增量(分析和背景的差异)减少了这些背景偏差,提高了对流层顶的锐度。对流层顶更尖锐的剖面显示出更强的背景偏差,但在分析中,观测数据对温度和二氧化氮的正向影响也会增加。背景风速被低估了,特别是在对流层高层(1 m s-1),但同化可以改善风廓线。对于最强的风,背景偏差大约减半。对分析风廓线的积极影响与风切变垂直分布的改善有关,特别是在低平流层。此外,我们还发现分析对流层顶高度向观测值偏移。对 OSE 的评估突出表明,诊断出的对流层顶锐化主要归因于无线电探空仪。这项研究表明,数据同化改善了对流层顶的风和温度梯度,但与模式偏差相比,这种锐化是很小的。因此,分析仍然系统性地低估了对流层顶的锐化,这可能会对天气和气候预报产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes 分析法国 23 年的暖季雪灾:气候学以及对天气和环境变化的调查
Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024
Lucas Fery, Davide Faranda
Abstract. Derechos are severe convective storms known for producing widespread damaging winds. While less frequent than in the United States of America (USA), derechos also occur in Europe. The notable European event on 18 August 2022 exhibited gusts exceeding 200 km h−1, spanning 1500 km in 12 h. This study presents a first climatology of warm-season derechos in France, identifying 38 events between 2000 and 2022. Typically associated with a southwesterly mid-level circulation, warm-season derechos in France generally initiate in the afternoon and exhibit peak activity in July, with comparable frequencies in June and August. Predominantly impacting the northeast of France, these events exhibit a maximum observed frequency of 0.65 events per year, on average, within a 200 km by 200 km square region. These characteristics are similar to those observed in Germany, with notable differences seen in the USA, where frequencies can attain significantly higher values. The study also examines synoptic and environmental changes linked with analogues of the 500 hPa geopotential height patterns associated with past warm-season derechos, comparing analogues from a relatively distant past (1950–1980) with a recent period (1992–2022). For most events, a notable increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) is observed, aligning with trends identified in previous studies for southern Europe. However, no consistent change in 0–6 km vertical wind shear is observed in the recent period. These environmental shifts align with higher near-surface temperatures, altered mid-level atmospheric flow patterns and often increased rainfall. The role of anthropogenic climate change in these changes remains uncertain, given potential influences of natural variability factors such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
摘要对流风暴是一种以产生大范围破坏性大风而著称的强对流风暴。虽然在欧洲,强对流风暴的发生频率低于美利坚合众国(美国),但在欧洲也有发生。2022 年 8 月 18 日发生的著名欧洲事件的阵风时速超过 200 公里/小时,在 12 小时内跨越 1500 公里。本研究首次展示了法国暖季德雷克风暴的气候学特征,确定了 2000 年至 2022 年间发生的 38 次事件。法国的暖季德雷赫斯通常与西南中层环流有关,一般在下午开始,7 月份达到活动高峰,6 月和 8 月的活动频率相当。这些事件主要影响法国东北部,在 200 平方公里乘 200 平方公里的区域内,观测到的最大频率为平均每年 0.65 次。这些特征与在德国观测到的特征相似,但美国的情况明显不同,美国的频率可能会高得多。该研究还考察了与过去暖季降水相关的 500 hPa 位势高度模式类似物有关的天气和环境变化,比较了相对遥远的过去(1950-1980 年)和近期(1992-2022 年)的类似物。在大多数事件中,观测到对流可用势能(CAPE)明显增加,这与之前南欧研究中确定的趋势一致。然而,在最近一段时期,0-6 公里垂直风切变没有发生持续变化。这些环境变化与较高的近地面温度、改变的中层大气流动模式以及经常增加的降雨量相一致。考虑到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)或大西洋年代涛动(AMO)等自然变异因素的潜在影响,人为气候变化在这些变化中的作用仍不确定。
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引用次数: 0
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales 检测和描述从阿尔卑斯山到地方尺度的 foehn 下降的拉格朗日框架
Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024
Lukas Jansing, L. Papritz, Michael Sprenger
Abstract. When foehn winds surmount the Alps from the south, they often abruptly and vigorously descend into the leeside valleys on the Alpine north side. Scientists have long been intrigued by the underlying cause of this pronounced descent. While mountain gravity waves and the hydraulic theory provide theoretical foundations to explain the phenomenon, the descent of the Alpine south foehn has, so far, not been explicitly quantified and characterized for a series of real-case events. To fill this research gap, the present study employs kilometer-scale numerical simulations, combined with online trajectories calculated during model integration. In an innovative approach, we adopt the Lagrangian perspective, enabling us to identify the descent and determine its key characteristics across foehn regions spanning from the Western to the Eastern Alps. In the first part of the study, we find the descent of foehn air parcels to be primarily confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains, underlining the fundamental role of local topography in providing a natural anchor for the descent during south foehn. Consequently, the small-scale elevation differences in the underlying terrain are clearly linked to the magnitude of the descent, whereby other contributing factors also influence the process. Combined with the fact that the descent is mostly dry adiabatic, these results suggest that the descending motion occurs along downward-sloping isentropes associated with gravity waves. A small proportion of air parcels experience diabatic cooling and moisture uptake during the descent, which predominantly occur to the south of the Alpine crest. The second part of the study aims to elucidate the different factors affecting the descent on a local scale. To this end, a particularly prominent hotspot situated along the Rätikon, a regional mountain range adjacent to the Rhine Valley, is examined in two detailed case studies. During periods characterized by intensified descent, local peaks along the Rätikon excite gravity waves that are linked to the descent of air parcels into the northern tributaries of the Rätikon and into the Rhine Valley. The two case studies reveal that different wave regimes, including vertically propagating waves, breaking waves, and horizontally propagating lee waves, coincide with the descent. This suggests the absence of a specific wave regime that is consistently present during foehn descent periods along the Rätikon. In addition to gravity waves, other effects likewise influence the descent activity. For example, a topographic concavity deflects the near-surface flow and thus promotes strong descent of air parcels towards the floor of the Rhine Valley. In addition, in one of our cases, nocturnal cooling introduces a smooth virtual topography that inhibits the formation of pronounced gravity waves and impedes the descent of foehn air parcels into the valley atmosphere. In summary, this study approaches
摘要当南风从阿尔卑斯山上吹来时,往往会突然猛烈地下降到阿尔卑斯山北侧的山谷中。长期以来,科学家们一直对造成这种明显下降的根本原因感到好奇。虽然山地重力波和水力理论为解释这一现象提供了理论基础,但迄今为止,阿尔卑斯山南麓的下降还没有在一系列实际事件中得到明确的量化和描述。为了填补这一研究空白,本研究采用了千米尺度的数值模拟,并结合模型整合过程中计算出的在线轨迹。作为一种创新方法,我们采用了拉格朗日视角,使我们能够识别从西阿尔卑斯山到东阿尔卑斯山的整个弗恩地区的下降过程,并确定其主要特征。在研究的第一部分,我们发现 foehn 气团的下降主要局限于紧邻当地山峰和山脉的独特热点地区,这凸显了当地地形在为南部 foehn 期间的下降提供一个自然锚方面的重要作用。因此,底层地形的小范围海拔差异与下降的幅度有着明显的联系,而其他因素也会对这一过程产生影响。这些结果表明,下降运动是沿着与重力波相关的向下倾斜的等温线进行的。一小部分气团在下降过程中经历了绝热冷却和吸湿,这主要发生在阿尔卑斯山顶以南。研究的第二部分旨在阐明影响局部下降的不同因素。为此,我们通过两个详细的案例研究,对莱茵河谷附近的地区山脉莱蒂孔(Rätikon)沿线的一个特别突出的热点地区进行了考察。在降水加剧的时期,莱蒂孔山脉沿线的局部山峰会激发重力波,这些重力波与气团进入莱蒂孔山脉北部支流和莱茵河谷的降水有关。这两项案例研究显示,不同的波浪机制,包括垂直传播波浪、破碎波浪和水平传播的利波,都与下降过程相吻合。这表明,在莱茵河沿岸的foehn下降期,并不存在一种持续存在的特定波浪机制。除了重力波之外,其他效应也同样影响着下降活动。例如,地形凹陷会使近地面气流发生偏转,从而促使气团向莱茵河谷地面强烈下降。此外,在我们的一个案例中,夜间降温引入了平滑的虚拟地形,抑制了明显重力波的形成,阻碍了 foehn 气团向山谷大气层的下降。总之,这项研究从一个新的角度切入了 foehn 研究中一个由来已久的课题。鉴于模型模拟的局限性,我们没有试图明确解决下降的原因。不过,我们利用在线轨迹,明确识别并描述了 foehn 的下降过程。创新的拉格朗日方法使我们能够在一个包含多个案例研究和各种不同 foehn 区域的综合数据集中对下降进行诊断。研究结果凸显了拉格朗日视角所带来的益处,它不仅补充了以前占主导地位的欧拉视角,还大大扩展了关于 foehn 下降的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Sustained intensification of the Aleutian Low induces weak tropical Pacific sea surface warming 阿留申低地的持续强化导致热带太平洋海面微弱变暖
Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024
William J. Dow, C. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, A. Blaker, R. Rigby, A. Maycock
Abstract. It has been proposed that externally forced trends in the Aleutian Low can induce a basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response that projects onto the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). To investigate this hypothesis, we apply local atmospheric nudging in an intermediate-complexity climate model to isolate the effects of an intensified winter Aleutian Low sustained over several decades. An intensification of the Aleutian Low produces a basin-wide SST response with a similar pattern to the model's internally generated PDO. The amplitude of the SST response in the North Pacific is comparable to the PDO, but in the tropics and southern subtropics the anomalies induced by the imposed Aleutian Low anomaly are a factor of 3 weaker than for the internally generated PDO. The tropical Pacific warming peaks in boreal spring, though anomalies persist year-round. A heat budget analysis shows the northern subtropical Pacific SST response is predominantly driven by anomalous surface turbulent heat fluxes in boreal winter, while in the equatorial Pacific the response is mainly due to meridional heat advection in boreal spring. The propagation of anomalies from the extratropics to the tropics can be explained by the seasonal footprinting mechanism, involving the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The results show that low-frequency variability and trends in the Aleutian Low could contribute to basin-wide anomalous Pacific SST, but the magnitude of the effect in the tropical Pacific, even for the extreme Aleutian Low forcing applied here, is small. Therefore, external forcing of the Aleutian Low is unlikely to account for observed decadal SST trends in the tropical Pacific in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
摘要有人提出,阿留申低纬度的外力趋势可引起全海盆太平洋海面温度(SST)的响应,这种响应可投射到太平洋十年涛动(PDO)的模式上。为了研究这一假设,我们在一个中等复杂程度的气候模式中应用了局地大气扰动,以分离出冬季阿留申低纬度持续数十年加剧的影响。阿留申低纬度的加强会产生全海盆范围的海温响应,其模式与模式内部生成的 PDO 相似。北太平洋海温响应的幅度与 PDO 相当,但在热带和南亚热带,阿留申低纬度异常引起的异常比内部生成的 PDO 弱 3 倍。热带太平洋变暖在北方春季达到顶峰,但异常全年持续。热量预算分析表明,北亚热带太平洋 SST 响应主要是由北半球冬季的异常地表湍流热通量驱动的,而赤道太平洋的响应主要是由北半球春季的经向热平流驱动的。异常现象从外向热带地区向热带地区的传播可以用季节性足迹机制来解释,其中涉及风-蒸发-SST 反馈。研究结果表明,阿留申低纬度的低频变率和趋势可能会导致全海盆范围的太平洋海温异常,但对热带太平洋的影响程度很小,即使在这里应用的极端阿留申低纬度强迫也是如此。因此,阿留申低地的外力作用不太可能解释 20 世纪末和 21 世纪初观测到的热带太平洋海温十年趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves 了解近期破纪录热浪的垂直温度结构
Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024
Belinda Hotz, L. Papritz, Matthias Röthlisberger
Abstract. Extreme heatwaves are one of the most impactful natural hazards, posing risks to human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Recent theoretical and observational studies have suggested that the vertical temperature structure during heatwaves limits the magnitude of near-surface heat through convective instability. In this study, we thus examine in detail the vertical temperature structure during three recent record-shattering heatwaves, the Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave in 2021, the western Russian (RU) heatwave in 2010, and the western European and UK (UK) heatwave in 2022, by decomposing temperature anomalies (T′) in the entire tropospheric column above the surface into contributions from advection, adiabatic warming and cooling, and diabatic processes. All three heatwaves exhibited bottom-heavy yet vertically deep positive T′ extending throughout the troposphere. Importantly, though, the T′ magnitude and the underlying physical processes varied greatly in the vertical within each heatwave, as well as across distinct heatwaves, reflecting the diverse synoptic storylines of these events. The PNW heatwave was strongly influenced by an upstream cyclone and an associated warm conveyor belt, which amplified an extreme quasi-stationary ridge and generated substantial mid- to upper-tropospheric positive T′ through advection and diabatic heating. In some contrast, positive upper-tropospheric T′ during the RU heatwave was caused by advection, while during the UK heatwave, it exhibited modest positive diabatic contributions from upstream latent heating only during the early phase of the respective ridge. Adiabatic warming notably contributed positively to lower-tropospheric T′ in all three heatwaves, but only in the lowermost 200–300 hPa. Near the surface, all three processes contributed positively to T′ in the PNW and RU heatwaves, while near-surface diabatic T′ was negligible during the UK heatwave. Moreover, there is clear evidence of an amplification and downward propagation of adiabatic T′ during the PNW and UK heatwaves, whereby the maximum near-surface T′ coincided with the arrival of maximum adiabatic T′ in the boundary layer. Additionally, the widespread ageing of near-surface T′ over the course of these events is fully consistent with the notion of heat domes, within which air recirculates and accumulates heat. Our results for the first time document the four-dimensional functioning of anticyclone–heatwave couplets in terms of advection, adiabatic cooling or warming, and diabatic processes and suggest that a complex interplay between large-scale dynamics, moist convection, and boundary layer processes ultimately determines near-surface temperatures during heatwaves.
摘要极端热浪是影响最大的自然灾害之一,对人类健康、基础设施和生态系统构成风险。最近的理论和观测研究表明,热浪期间的垂直温度结构通过对流不稳定性限制了近地面热量的大小。因此,在本研究中,我们通过将地表以上整个对流层柱的温度异常(T′)分解为平流、绝热升温和降温以及绝热过程的贡献,详细研究了最近三次创纪录热浪(2021 年西北太平洋热浪、2010 年俄罗斯西部热浪以及 2022 年欧洲西部和英国热浪)期间的垂直温度结构。所有三个热浪都表现出底部重但垂直深度大的正 T′,并延伸到整个对流层。但重要的是,每个热浪以及不同热浪之间的 T′幅度和基本物理过程在垂直方向上有很大差异,反映了这些事件的不同同步故事情节。西北太平洋热浪受到上游气旋和相关暖输送带的强烈影响,气旋和暖输送带放大了一个极端的准静止脊,并通过平流和二重加热产生了大量中上对流层正 T′。与此形成鲜明对比的是,RU 热浪期间的正对流层上层 T′是由平流引起的,而在英国热浪期间,仅在各自海脊的早期阶段,上游潜热才对对流层上层 T′产生适度的正绝热贡献。在所有三个热浪中,绝热升温对低对流层 T′都有显著的正贡献,但只在最下层的 200-300 hPa。在近地面,所有三个过程都对西北太平洋热浪和俄罗斯热浪中的 T′产生了积极影响,而在英国热浪中,近地面的绝热 T′可以忽略不计。此外,有明显的证据表明,在西北太平洋和英国热浪期间,绝热 T′被放大并向下传播,近地面最大 T′与边界层最大绝热 T′同时出现。此外,在这些事件过程中,近地面 T′普遍老化,这完全符合热穹顶的概念,即空气在热穹顶内再循环并积聚热量。我们的研究结果首次从平流、绝热冷却或升温和绝热过程的角度记录了反气旋-热浪对流的四维功能,并表明大尺度动力学、湿对流和边界层过程之间复杂的相互作用最终决定了热浪期间的近地面温度。
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引用次数: 1
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Weather and Climate Dynamics
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