乙型肝炎传播与肝硬化的 SIRC 模型动态分析

Ririn Febriyanti, B. Prihandono., M. Kiftiah.
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摘要

乙型肝炎是一种可导致肝硬化的肝脏感染。乙型肝炎的传播有两种方式,即水平传播和垂直传播。本研究使用 SIRC 模型对这一问题进行数学建模,将人群分为四个子人群,即易感人群(S)、感染人群(I)、因接种疫苗而治愈或免疫人群(R)和肝硬化人群(C)。通过分析,得到了两个平衡点,即无疾病平衡点和地方病平衡点。 利用下一代矩阵得到了基本繁殖数。分析结果表明,如果出现Ⅳ,则无病平衡点局部渐近稳定,这意味着乙肝在肝硬化中的传播不会扩散。同时,如果 ,则无病平衡点局部渐近稳定,这意味着乙肝在肝硬化中的传播不会扩散。同时,如果 ,则意味着乙型肝炎在肝硬化中的传播受到易感者和感染者之间接触的影响。为了支持分析结果,我们提供了数值模拟来描述 SIRC 模型的行为。
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Analisis Dinamik Model SIRC pada Transmisi Hepatitis B dengan Sirosis Hati
Hepatitis B is an infection of the liver that can cause liver cirrhosis. Liver cirrhosis can occur due to the formation of scar tissue in individuals who have prolonged hepatitis B. Transmission of hepatitis B can occur in two ways, namely horizontal and vertical. In this research, this problem is modeled in a mathematical model using the SIRC model, where the population is grouped into four sub-populations, namely susceptible (S), infected (I), cured or immune due to vaccination (R) and cirrhosis. liver (C). From the analysis, two equilibrium points were obtained, namely the disease-free equilibrium point the endemic equilibrium point  The basic reproduction number   is obtained using the Next Generation Matrix. The analysis results show that if , then the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable, which means that hepatitis B transmission in liver cirrhosis does not spread. Meanwhile, if  , then the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable, which means that hepatitis B transmission in liver cirrhosis does not spread. Meanwhile, if , this means that hepatitis B transmission in liver cirrhosis is influenced by contact between susceptible and infectious individuals. To support the results of the analytical analysis, numerical simulations are provided to describe the behavior of the SIRC model.
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