When pesticide reduction objectives meet business as usual: Possible impacts on the crop sector in Latvia

The European Union (EU) has set forth ambitious political objectives aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of agriculture on climate, environment, and human health. Among the measures which are expected to help reach the goals, an important objective is significant reduction of pesticide usage, as outlined in the EU’s ”From Farm to Fork” strategy. This study seeks to assess the potential financial implications of the reduction of pesticide use, focusing on the major crops cultivated in Latvia. Scenario simulations have been conducted to examine the consequences of pesticide usage intensity on profitability, yields, and consumption of fertilisers. The evaluation encompasses winter and spring wheat, along with winter rapeseed, which account for 80% of the total pesticide usage in Latvia. It is assumed that farmers continue to produce the same crops, using their current level of knowledge and adjusting production technology to the reduced pesticides application rates. The analysis leads to the conclusion that in order to attain a reduction in pesticide use by 61% from the 2021 level (or 53% from the 2015–2017 level), the application rate of pesticides needs to be limited to 0.78 kg ha ⁻¹ of active substance for conventionally produced winter and spring wheat as well as winter rapeseed, and in addition to that the area used for these crops should be reduced by 33% (replaced with organic production). However, if the market prices of crops, the amount of public support and production costs do not change, the financial implications for the agricultural sector could be severe — yearly farm profit in the analysed sector could decrease by 41% or by EUR 130 mln.