过冲情景中区域气候信号的有限逆转

P. Pfleiderer, C. Schleussner, Jana Sillmann
{"title":"过冲情景中区域气候信号的有限逆转","authors":"P. Pfleiderer, C. Schleussner, Jana Sillmann","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit is increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature exceeds a certain limit (i.e. 1.5C above pre- industrial levels) before bringing temperatures back below that limit. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emerging picture is less clear. In many regions the drying or wetting trend is continued throughout the overshoot irrespective of a change in the global mean temperature trend with resulting consequences for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies considerable risks on the regional level.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"46 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios\",\"authors\":\"P. Pfleiderer, C. Schleussner, Jana Sillmann\",\"doi\":\"10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit is increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature exceeds a certain limit (i.e. 1.5C above pre- industrial levels) before bringing temperatures back below that limit. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emerging picture is less clear. In many regions the drying or wetting trend is continued throughout the overshoot irrespective of a change in the global mean temperature trend with resulting consequences for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies considerable risks on the regional level.\",\"PeriodicalId\":432508,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Research: Climate\",\"volume\":\"46 20\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Research: Climate\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Research: Climate","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

如果未来几年不严格减少温室气体排放,气温超过 1.5 摄氏度上限的可能性就会越来越大。这就产生了所谓的气温过冲情景,即全球平均地表气温超过一定限度(即比工业化前水平高出 1.5 摄氏度)后,气温又回到该限度以下。尽管温度超调在气候减缓文献中占据重要地位,但对其对当地气候影响的研究仍然不足。在此,我们全面分析了超调对地区温度和降水变化以及极端气候指数的影响。基于耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)的多模式比较,我们发现许多地区的气温变化在很大程度上是可逆的,但也报告了过冲后显著的陆地-海洋和纬度差异。在降水方面,新出现的情况就不那么清晰了。在许多地区,无论全球平均气温趋势如何变化,在整个超调期间,干燥或湿润趋势都会持续,从而对极端降水造成影响。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,即使全球平均气温上升的趋势发生逆转,区域气候变化在变暖峰值之后的几十年内也可能只会发生部分逆转。因此,我们提供了进一步的证据,证明变暖水平的超调意味着区域层面的巨大风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios
Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit is increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature exceeds a certain limit (i.e. 1.5C above pre- industrial levels) before bringing temperatures back below that limit. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emerging picture is less clear. In many regions the drying or wetting trend is continued throughout the overshoot irrespective of a change in the global mean temperature trend with resulting consequences for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies considerable risks on the regional level.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Improvement of decadal predictions of monthly extreme Mei-yu rainfall via a causality guided approach Climate classification systems for validating Earth system models Net evaporation-induced mangrove area loss across low-lying Caribbean islands Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves Linking local climate scenarios to global warming levels: applicability, prospects and uncertainties
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1