巴拿马民主态度的发展(2012-2021 年)

Sergio García-Rendón, Jon Subinas
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摘要

巴拿马公民对民主的态度是如何演变的?民众民主价值观下降的原因何在?本文描述了 2012 年至 2021 年间巴拿马人对民主的态度的演变,并探讨了导致人们的态度随着时间推移而发生变化的政治动态。为了描述民主态度的演变,我们采用了聚类分析方法,该方法在五次美洲晴雨表数据浪潮中的每一次都确定了具有不同民主态度模式的公民群体。聚类分析得出的核心结论是,自 2014 年以来,民主和宽容的支持率大幅下降。在分析中,我们根据理论讨论了前总统里卡多-马蒂内利(2009-2014 年)可能对 2012 年民主和民主制度的总体高支持率产生的影响,以及他的政府可能对 2014 年至 2021 年民主态度的后续演变产生的影响。
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Development of Democratic Attitudes in Panama (2012-2021)
How have the attitudes of citizens towards democracy in Panama evolved? What explains the decline in democratic values among the population? This paper describes the evolution of attitudes in Panama between 2012 and 2021 and examines the political dynamics that have contributed to changes in attitudes over time. To describe the evolution of democratic attitudes, we draw on cluster analysis, which identified groups of citizens with distinct patterns of democratic attitudes in each of five waves of AmericasBarometer data. The central finding that emerges from the cluster analysis is that there are significant drops in support for democracy and tolerance since 2014. In the analysis we discuss in the light of theory a possible influence of former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014) on the overall high support for democracy and democratic institutions in 2012, and a possible legacy of his administration on the subsequent evolution of democratic attitudes between 2014 and 2021.
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