{"title":"María Esperanza Casullo y Harry Brown Araúz. El Populismo en América Central. La pieza que falta para comprender un fenómeno global. Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI Editores, 2023. 288 páginas. ISBN 978-987-801-276-6.","authors":"Salvador Martí i Puig","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31808","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"119 48","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141361959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Aldo Adrián Martínez Hernández. Partidos y sistemas de partidos en América Latina: Éxito electoral y cambio político (1988-2016). Toluca: Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, 2022. 437 páginas. ISBN 978-607-8818-16-7.","authors":"Fernando Casal Bértoa","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31965","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":" 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141363818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A partir de una discusión sobre la legitimación de violencia política, postulamos 4 hipótesis sobre los determinantes de legitimación de actos de violencia cometidos por manifestantes y por agentes estatales. Las testeamos con 3 encuestas del Centro de Estudios Públicos realizadas entre 2019 y 2022 en Chile. Se legitiman más las marchas que otras formas de violencia ejercidas por manifestantes. Disminuye la legitimación de la violencia de manifestantes y aumenta la legitimación de violencia por agentes del estado en 2021 y 2022 respecto a 2019. Los que confían menos en Carabineros y creen que las fuerzas de orden violaron los derechos humanos legitiman más todas las formas de violencia de manifestantes y menos la violencia de agentes estatales. Los de derecha legitiman más la violencia de agentes del Estado y los de izquierda legitiman más la violencia de manifestantes y menos la de agentes del Estado.
基于对政治暴力合法化的讨论，我们就抗议者和国家人员实施的暴力行为合法化的决定因素提出了 4 个假设。我们利用公共研究中心（Centro de Estudios Públicos）于 2019 年至 2022 年在智利进行的 3 项调查对这些假设进行了验证。游行比抗议者实施的其他形式的暴力行为更加合法化。与 2019 年相比，2021 年和 2022 年示威者暴力行为的合法化程度有所下降，而国家人员暴力行为的合法化程度有所上升。那些对武警信任度较低并认为执法部门侵犯人权的人更多地将抗议者所有形式的暴力行为合法化，而较少将国家工作人员的暴力行为合法化。右派认为国家人员的暴力更合法，左派认为抗议者的暴力更合法，国家人员的暴力较少。
{"title":"Legitimando la violencia de manifestantes y policías en protestas sociales: El caso de Chile, 2019-2022","authors":"Maximiliano Agustín Ross Zbinden, P. Navia","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31706","url":null,"abstract":"A partir de una discusión sobre la legitimación de violencia política, postulamos 4 hipótesis sobre los determinantes de legitimación de actos de violencia cometidos por manifestantes y por agentes estatales. Las testeamos con 3 encuestas del Centro de Estudios Públicos realizadas entre 2019 y 2022 en Chile. Se legitiman más las marchas que otras formas de violencia ejercidas por manifestantes. Disminuye la legitimación de la violencia de manifestantes y aumenta la legitimación de violencia por agentes del estado en 2021 y 2022 respecto a 2019. Los que confían menos en Carabineros y creen que las fuerzas de orden violaron los derechos humanos legitiman más todas las formas de violencia de manifestantes y menos la violencia de agentes estatales. Los de derecha legitiman más la violencia de agentes del Estado y los de izquierda legitiman más la violencia de manifestantes y menos la de agentes del Estado.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"9 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141265402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What is the relationship between procedural fairness in encounters with the police and intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors’ attitudes? I argue that because of the emotional damage caused by victimization, survivors are especially attuned to the interpersonal treatment they receive when seeking help from specialized services (e. g., police). If this treatment is procedurally unfair, they might conclude that IPV laws are not effective and become less likely to report intentions to intervene by calling the police if they witness intimate partner violence. Relying on public opinion data from Brazil, I find that procedural fairness matters for survivors’ opinions about laws, but I found no relationship between procedural fairness and bystander intervention attitudes. I explore possible explanations for this non-finding with several additional analyses.
{"title":"Procedural fairness and political attitudes: unpacking the experiences of victims of intimate partner violence with the police","authors":"Helen Rabello Kras","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31356","url":null,"abstract":"What is the relationship between procedural fairness in encounters with the police and intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors’ attitudes? I argue that because of the emotional damage caused by victimization, survivors are especially attuned to the interpersonal treatment they receive when seeking help from specialized services (e. g., police). If this treatment is procedurally unfair, they might conclude that IPV laws are not effective and become less likely to report intentions to intervene by calling the police if they witness intimate partner violence. Relying on public opinion data from Brazil, I find that procedural fairness matters for survivors’ opinions about laws, but I found no relationship between procedural fairness and bystander intervention attitudes. I explore possible explanations for this non-finding with several additional analyses.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":" 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140993175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brian Thompson-Collart, Yannick Dufresne, Evelyne Brie
The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.
{"title":"Can Latin American Voters see the Future?","authors":"Brian Thompson-Collart, Yannick Dufresne, Evelyne Brie","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31348","url":null,"abstract":"The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"39 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140230077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How have the attitudes of citizens towards democracy in Panama evolved? What explains the decline in democratic values among the population? This paper describes the evolution of attitudes in Panama between 2012 and 2021 and examines the political dynamics that have contributed to changes in attitudes over time. To describe the evolution of democratic attitudes, we draw on cluster analysis, which identified groups of citizens with distinct patterns of democratic attitudes in each of five waves of AmericasBarometer data. The central finding that emerges from the cluster analysis is that there are significant drops in support for democracy and tolerance since 2014. In the analysis we discuss in the light of theory a possible influence of former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014) on the overall high support for democracy and democratic institutions in 2012, and a possible legacy of his administration on the subsequent evolution of democratic attitudes between 2014 and 2021.
{"title":"Development of Democratic Attitudes in Panama (2012-2021)","authors":"Sergio García-Rendón, Jon Subinas","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31382","url":null,"abstract":"How have the attitudes of citizens towards democracy in Panama evolved? What explains the decline in democratic values among the population? This paper describes the evolution of attitudes in Panama between 2012 and 2021 and examines the political dynamics that have contributed to changes in attitudes over time. To describe the evolution of democratic attitudes, we draw on cluster analysis, which identified groups of citizens with distinct patterns of democratic attitudes in each of five waves of AmericasBarometer data. The central finding that emerges from the cluster analysis is that there are significant drops in support for democracy and tolerance since 2014. In the analysis we discuss in the light of theory a possible influence of former President Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014) on the overall high support for democracy and democratic institutions in 2012, and a possible legacy of his administration on the subsequent evolution of democratic attitudes between 2014 and 2021.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":" 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139624539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Weak support for democratic norms and institutions poses a serious challenge to the survival of democracy. Studies of public opinion often assume that citizens hold politicians accountable for respecting democratic norms. This study examines citizens’ attitudes toward democracy in Mexico. It focuses on the 2018 election as a critical juncture when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (MORENA) won the presidential election on his third attempt. Data from the LAPOP’s Americas Barometer (2012-2019) show that—consistent with the loser-winner gap literature —President López Obrador’s supporters increased their satisfaction with democracy after the 2018 election. However, unlike most voters who elected winners of elections, they did not become more committed to democracy. Even in some cases, after 2018, AMLO voters are more likely than other partisan groups to suppor t anti-democratic interventions, particularly support for a coup when crime is high. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the winner-loser gap in the context of Mexico’s democratic erosion. Although the results of this paper are based on exploratory evidence, they highlight that an important portion of voters is willing to sacrifice democracy and support their co-partisans’ actions that undermine democracy.
{"title":"Anti-Democratic Attitudes, the Winner-Loser Gap, and the Rise of the Left in Mexico","authors":"Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Joy Langston","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31414","url":null,"abstract":"Weak support for democratic norms and institutions poses a serious challenge to the survival of democracy. Studies of public opinion often assume that citizens hold politicians accountable for respecting democratic norms. This study examines citizens’ attitudes toward democracy in Mexico. It focuses on the 2018 election as a critical juncture when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (MORENA) won the presidential election on his third attempt. Data from the LAPOP’s Americas Barometer (2012-2019) show that—consistent with the loser-winner gap literature —President López Obrador’s supporters increased their satisfaction with democracy after the 2018 election. However, unlike most voters who elected winners of elections, they did not become more committed to democracy. Even in some cases, after 2018, AMLO voters are more likely than other partisan groups to suppor t anti-democratic interventions, particularly support for a coup when crime is high. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the winner-loser gap in the context of Mexico’s democratic erosion. Although the results of this paper are based\u0000on exploratory evidence, they highlight that an important portion of voters is willing to sacrifice democracy and support their co-partisans’ actions that undermine democracy.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"23 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139535128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After more than a decade of political stability, in 2019 Bolivia suffered a major political crisis that ended with the resignation of a long-standing President, amidst popular unrest after a questioned election. While the crisis was the immediate result of a questionable attempt by the President to skip constitutional term limits, its roots can be found in the declining rates of support and satisfaction with democracy among citizens and in the polarization reaching democratic support. Using survey data from LAPOPs AmericasBarometer, this article finds that national averages for different measures for democratic support show declining trends, and, perhaps more importantly, they also show high levels of polarization, with supporters of the president showing radically different attitudes that those who are critics of the government, particularly during critical times. Cluster analyses performed on the same data indicate that the proportion of individuals who share attitudes that can be considered as “institutionalists” has been declining, while the proportion of those who support extra-powers for the executive and authoritarian alternatives, has increased. The article concludes discussing some risks for Bolivian democracy within its citizens’ attitudes towards democratic institutions.
{"title":"Trends in Democratic Attitudes: Bolivia 2004-2021","authors":"Daniel E. Moreno Morales","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31385","url":null,"abstract":"After more than a decade of political stability, in 2019 Bolivia suffered a major political crisis that ended with the resignation of a long-standing President, amidst popular unrest after a questioned election. While the crisis was the immediate result of a questionable attempt by the President to skip constitutional term limits, its roots can be found in the declining rates of support and satisfaction with democracy among citizens and in the polarization reaching democratic support. Using survey data from LAPOPs AmericasBarometer, this article finds that national averages for different measures for democratic support show declining trends, and, perhaps more importantly, they also show high levels of polarization, with supporters of the president showing radically different attitudes that those who are critics of the government, particularly during critical times. Cluster analyses performed on the same data indicate that the proportion of individuals who share attitudes that can be considered as “institutionalists” has been declining, while the proportion of those who support extra-powers for the executive and authoritarian alternatives, has increased. The article concludes discussing some risks for Bolivian democracy within its citizens’ attitudes towards democratic institutions.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"84 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139179470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses the Americas Barometer survey series, 2004-2021, consisting of national probability surveys representative of the voting age population to examine the evolution of democratic political culture in Honduras. As our analysis indicates, there has been significant democratic backsliding since 2009. Many of the events we trace in our analysis –the decline of rule of law, rising violence, illegitimate elections, the generalized environment of repression, endemic corruption, and economic decline– are largely the consequences of the 2009 coup and reflect the underlying structural and political conditions that help explain the unprecedented electoral victory of Xiomara Castro in 2021.
{"title":"Militarism, Authoritarianism and Corruption: Post-Coup Honduras and the Decline of Democracy","authors":"Orlando J. Perez, Christine J. Wade","doi":"10.14201/rlop.31391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.31391","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the Americas Barometer survey series, 2004-2021, consisting of national probability surveys representative of the voting age population to examine the evolution of democratic political culture in Honduras. As our analysis indicates, there has been significant democratic backsliding since 2009. Many of the events we trace in our analysis –the decline of rule of law, rising violence, illegitimate elections, the generalized environment of repression, endemic corruption, and economic decline– are largely the consequences of the 2009 coup and reflect the underlying structural and political conditions that help explain the unprecedented electoral victory of Xiomara Castro in 2021.","PeriodicalId":508108,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139179365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：