Predictors of Insect Damage to Forest Stands According to Satellite Data Using the Siberian Silkmoth Dendrolimis Sibiricus Tschetv as an Example

Abstract

Population outbreaks of such species as Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv., in Siberian taiga forests begin with areas of several hectares and develop up to hundreds of thousands of hectares, resulting in significant damage to forests. Boundaries of foci change with time depending on external factors, population dynamics, and the state of forage trees. In this regard, it is important to determine the beginning of an outbreak and the affected area in advance as predictors of increasing pest numbers. To assess necessary conditions for an outbreak, a method for assessing the state of forest stands is proposed based on remote sensing data. In this regard, it is important to assess risks of outbreaks and to determine in advance their onset times and starting zones. In order to evaluate necessary conditions for an outbreak, a “cascade” of factors is considered: geophysical (solar activity), weather, and the state of forest stands. Each of these factors is characterized by its own area, within the bounds of which any changes in this particular factor affect the insect population.