COVID-19 对沙特股市动态波动溢出网络的影响分析

Nadia Belkhir, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes
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摘要

本研究调查了沙特股市中与 COVID-19 相关的新闻恐慌指数、保险业、Tadawul All-Share 指数和行业指数之间的风险溢出效应。波动溢出效应是风险在各行业间传递的准确指标。我们的实证研究结果表明,在 COVID-19 爆发之前,Tadawul All-Share 股票市场作为行业指数(包括保险、媒体、制药、零售、运输和公用事业)的净风险传递者发挥着主导作用。此外,我们的分析表明,COVID-19 恐慌指数对净配对关联度有重大影响,尤其是对塔达乌尔全股指数、能源、银行、发展、材料、房地产、运输和公用事业行业的影响。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在整个样本期间,保险行业是公用事业、媒体、制药和零售行业溢出效应的净接收者,这证实了大流行病对这些行业的影响加剧。大流行病是一个与健康相关的问题,导致与健康相关的行业波动性显著上升,因为这些行业在有效应对危机方面发挥着关键作用。这些见解对投资者、投资组合经理和政策制定者具有重大意义,揭示了大流行病对股票市场的潜在影响。
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Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the dynamic volatility spillover network in the Saudi stock market
This study investigates the risk spillover among the COVID-19-related news Panic Index, the insurance industry, the Tadawul All-Share Index, and sector indices in Saudi stock market. Volatility spillovers serve as an accurate indicator for the transmission of risk across various sectors. Our empirical findings show that, prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, the Tadawul All-Share stock market played a dominant role as a net transmitter of risk for sector indices, including insurance, media, pharma, retail, transport, and utilities. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that the COVID-19 Panic Index exerts significant influence on the net pairwise connectedness, particularly impacting the Tadawul All-Share Index, energy, banking, development, materials, real estate, transport, and utilities sectors. Additionally, our results indicate that the insurance sector acts as a net receiver of spillovers from the utilities, media, pharma, and retail sectors throughout the sample period, affirming the heightened impact of the pandemic on these sectors. The pandemic, being a health-related issue, led to a notable surge in the volatility of sectors associated with health, given their pivotal role in effectively addressing the crisis. These insights carry substantial implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers, shedding light on the potential repercussions of the pandemic on the stock market.
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