What would it look like? Visualizing a future US Corn Belt landscape with more table food production

Most farmland in the US Corn Belt is used to grow row crops at large scales (e.g., corn, soybean) that are highly processed before entering the human food stream rather than specialty crops grown in smaller areas and meant for direct human consumption (table food). Bolstering local table food production close to urban populations in this region through peri-urban agriculture (PUA) could enhance sustainability and resilience. Understanding factors influencing PUA producers' preferences and willingness to produce table food would enable supportive planning and policy efforts. This study combined land use visualization and survey data to examine the potential for increased local table food production for the US Corn Belt. We developed a spatial visualization of current agricultural land use and a future scenario with increased table food production designed to meet 50% of dietary requirements for a metropolitan population in 2050. A survey was administered to row crop (1360) and specialty crop (55) producers near Des Moines, Iowa, US to understand current and intended agricultural land use and factors influencing production. Responses from 316 row crop and 25 specialty crop producers were eligible for this analysis. A future scenario with increased table food production would require less than 3% of available agricultural land and some additional producers (approximately 130, primarily for grain production). Survey responses indicated PUA producers planned small increases in table food production in the next three to five years. Producer plans, including land rental for table food production, could provide approximately 25% of residents' fruit, vegetables, and grains, an increase from the baseline of 2%. Row crop producers ranked food safety regulations, and specialty producers ranked labor concerns as strong influences on their decision-making. Both groups indicated that crop insurance and processing facilities were also important. Increasing table food production by clustering mid-scale operations to increase economies of scale and strengthening supply chains and production infrastructure could provide new profitable opportunities for farmers and more resilient food systems for growing urban regions in the US Corn Belt. Continuing to address producer factors and landscape-scale environmental impacts will be critical in considering food system sustainability challenges holistically.