Sonia A. Hall, Aaron Whittemore, Julie Padowski, Matthew Yourek, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan, Sasha McLarty, Fabio V. Scarpare, Mingliang Liu, Collins Asante-Sasu, Ashish Kondal, Michael Brady, Rebecca Gustine, Melissa Downes, Michael Callahan, Jennifer C. Adam
{"title":"同时评估水的供应和需求对于评估气候变化的脆弱性至关重要","authors":"Sonia A. Hall, Aaron Whittemore, Julie Padowski, Matthew Yourek, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan, Sasha McLarty, Fabio V. Scarpare, Mingliang Liu, Collins Asante-Sasu, Ashish Kondal, Michael Brady, Rebecca Gustine, Melissa Downes, Michael Callahan, Jennifer C. Adam","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13192","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Aligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long-term planning. Long-term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision-making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20-year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late-season out-of-stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late-season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long-term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13192","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Concurrently assessing water supply and demand is critical for evaluating vulnerabilities to climate change\",\"authors\":\"Sonia A. Hall, Aaron Whittemore, Julie Padowski, Matthew Yourek, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan, Sasha McLarty, Fabio V. Scarpare, Mingliang Liu, Collins Asante-Sasu, Ashish Kondal, Michael Brady, Rebecca Gustine, Melissa Downes, Michael Callahan, Jennifer C. Adam\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1752-1688.13192\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Aligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long-term planning. Long-term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision-making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20-year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late-season out-of-stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late-season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long-term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17234,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of The American Water Resources Association\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1752-1688.13192\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of The American Water Resources Association\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.13192\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.13192","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Concurrently assessing water supply and demand is critical for evaluating vulnerabilities to climate change
Aligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long-term planning. Long-term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision-making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20-year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late-season out-of-stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late-season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long-term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.
期刊介绍:
JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy.
JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.