同时评估水的供应和需求对于评估气候变化的脆弱性至关重要

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.13192
Sonia A. Hall, Aaron Whittemore, Julie Padowski, Matthew Yourek, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan, Sasha McLarty, Fabio V. Scarpare, Mingliang Liu, Collins Asante-Sasu, Ashish Kondal, Michael Brady, Rebecca Gustine, Melissa Downes, Michael Callahan, Jennifer C. Adam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

使供水与需求相匹配是一项挑战,尤其是在降水季节性变化大的地区和冬季降水占主导地位的地区。气候变化预计将加剧这一挑战,从而增加长期规划的必要性。有助于规划的长期水供需预测大多以机构报告的形式发布,与决策直接相关,但不太可能为未来研究提供信息。我们与华盛顿州生态部合作,对哥伦比亚河进行了为期 20 年的水资源供需预测。这项工作包括到 2040 年未来地表水供应和农业需求的综合建模,以及对未来地下水趋势、居民需求、内流河水量不足和削减的分析。我们发现,供水时间的变化可能会使华盛顿州东部的许多流域无法满足晚季河水外流的需求。流域内不断增加的农业或居民需求可能会加剧这些季节末期的脆弱性,对于有联邦或州内流规则的河流来说,削减水量可能会变得更加普遍。地下水的趋势大多在下降,使得流域更容易受到地表水供应或需求变化的影响。我们的建模框架和机构合作关系都可以作为其他长期努力的范例,这些努力旨在为全球其他地方在不断变化的气候中进行水资源管理提供见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Concurrently assessing water supply and demand is critical for evaluating vulnerabilities to climate change

Aligning water supply with demand is a challenge, particularly in areas with large seasonal variation in precipitation and those dominated by winter precipitation. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this challenge, increasing the need for long-term planning. Long-term projections of water supply and demand that can aid planning are mostly published as agency reports, which are directly relevant to decision-making but less likely to inform future research. We present 20-year water supply and demand projections for the Columbia River, produced in partnership with the Washington State Dept. of Ecology. This effort includes integrated modeling of future surface water supply and agricultural demand by 2040 and analyses of future groundwater trends, residential demand, instream flow deficits, and curtailment. We found that shifting timing in water supply could leave many eastern Washington watersheds unable to meet late-season out-of-stream demands. Increasing agricultural or residential demands in watersheds could exacerbate these late-season vulnerabilities, and curtailments could become more common for rivers with federal or state instream flow rules. Groundwater trends are mostly declining, leaving watersheds more vulnerable to surface water supply or demand changes. Both our modeling framework and agency partnership can serve as an example for other long-term efforts that aim to provide insights for water management in a changing climate elsewhere around the world.

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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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