死亡时间解释了老年人投票率按时间顺序下降的原因

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102775
Hannu Lahtinen , Pekka Martikainen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

年龄可能是参与选举的最有力的已知个人社会人口决定因素。尽管年龄对选举结果的形成具有重大影响,但人们对老年人投票率急剧下降的原因却缺乏基于证据的理解。我们认为,与时间相关的临近死亡以及与之相关的认知和身体机能下降可能解释了这种关系。通过将芬兰 65 岁以上选民参加 1999 年议会选举的全人口数据与超过 21 年的死亡率跟踪联系起来,我们证明了剩余寿命是比年龄更有力的预测投票率的因素,通常是一个数量级。这些结果提供了一个新的理论原则,有助于理解老年人选举参与率下降与年龄相关的根本原因:更重要的不是从摇篮到坟墓的时间,而是到坟墓的时间。
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Time to death explains the chronological decline of voter turnout among the older population

Age is possibly the strongest known individual-level socio-demographic determinant of participation in elections. Despite its substantial influence in shaping electoral outcomes, evidence-based understanding of the steep decline in turnout at older ages is scarce. We suggest that time-related proximity to death and the associated decline in cognitive and physical functioning may explain this relationship. With full population data on the participation of the 65+ year-old electorate in the 1999 parliamentary elections in Finland linked to a more than 21-year mortality follow-up, we demonstrate that the remaining lifetime is a more powerful predictor of voting than age, often by an order of magnitude. These results offer a novel theoretical principle into understanding the fundamental age-related decline in electoral participation at older ages: It is not the time from the cradle, but the time to the grave, that counts more.

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来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
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