威尔斯-瑞利模型再探:随机性、异质性和瞬态行为。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-19 DOI:10.1111/risa.14295
Alexander J Edwards, Marco-Felipe King, Catherine J Noakes, Daniel Peckham, Martín López-García
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引用次数: 0

摘要

威尔斯-瑞利模型已被广泛用于估算空气传播感染风险,通常是从确定性角度(即侧重于平均感染人数)或人均感染概率的角度进行估算。它的一些主要局限性涉及考虑空气的充分混合、空气中病原体的稳态浓度、室内相互作用的特定时间,以及所有个体都是同质的且行为相同。在此,我们重新审视了 Wells-Riley 模型,为其随机版本提供了数学形式,其中受感染个体的数量遵循二项分布。然后,我们扩展了威尔斯-瑞利方法,以考虑瞬态行为、随机性和种群异质性。特别是,我们为以下情况下的感染数量和人均感染概率提供了解析解:(i) 感染者离开后,易感个体仍留在室内;(ii) 室内互动的持续时间是随机/未知的;(iii) 感染者的量子产生率是异质的(或感染者的量子产生率是随机/未知的)。我们通过两个案例研究说明了新公式的适用性:传染性医护人员探视病人导致的感染风险,以及在不同用餐环境中不确定用餐时间的午餐暴露。我们的研究结果突出表明,感染者离开后,留在空间内的易感人群面临的感染风险可能是不可忽略的,并强调了在估算风险时纳入室内互动持续时间和感染者传染性的不确定性的重要性。
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The Wells-Riley model revisited: Randomness, heterogeneity, and transient behaviours.

The Wells-Riley model has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk, typically from a deterministic point of view (i.e., focusing on the average number of infections) or in terms of a per capita probability of infection. Some of its main limitations relate to considering well-mixed air, steady-state concentration of pathogen in the air, a particular amount of time for the indoor interaction, and that all individuals are homogeneous and behave equally. Here, we revisit the Wells-Riley model, providing a mathematical formalism for its stochastic version, where the number of infected individuals follows a Binomial distribution. Then, we extend the Wells-Riley methodology to consider transient behaviours, randomness, and population heterogeneity. In particular, we provide analytical solutions for the number of infections and the per capita probability of infection when: (i) susceptible individuals remain in the room after the infector leaves, (ii) the duration of the indoor interaction is random/unknown, and (iii) infectors have heterogeneous quanta production rates (or the quanta production rate of the infector is random/unknown). We illustrate the applicability of our new formulations through two case studies: infection risk due to an infectious healthcare worker (HCW) visiting a patient, and exposure during lunch for uncertain meal times in different dining settings. Our results highlight that infection risk to a susceptible who remains in the space after the infector leaves can be nonnegligible, and highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in the duration of the indoor interaction and the infectivity of the infector when estimating risk.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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