利用参数和非参数模型了解戈达瓦里中游子流域的气候变化动态

Md Masroor, Haroon Sajjad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化被认为是降水、温度和其他气象变量的长期变化。由于全球范围内的人为活动,气象变量的模式正在发生变化。气候变化已对自然和人类系统构成威胁。因此,评估和预测气候变异性已成为实现资源可持续发展和社会复原力的当务之急。本研究采用参数和非参数方法对印度戈达瓦里中游子流域的气候变化趋势和预测进行了研究。研究采用 Mann-Kendall 和 Sen's 坡度法分析了降雨量、最高和最低气温、平均风速、平均蒸发量和相对湿度等气象变量的趋势和幅度。利用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)和季节性自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)模型对气象变量进行了预测。在不同的显著性水平下,最高气温和最低气温均呈上升趋势。在 0.05 的显著性水平下,平均蒸发量呈下降趋势。该子流域的风速也呈下降趋势。二月、三月、四月、六月、十月和十二月的相对湿度呈上升趋势。分流域东南部的月总降雨量呈下降趋势。气象变量预测也显示,2017-2027 年期间降雨量减少,最高和最低气温上升,使该分流域更容易出现干燥气候条件。因此,该分流域需要制定以政策干预为导向的气候行动计划,以减轻气候变化的影响。
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Understanding climate change dynamics in the Godavari middle sub-basin using parametric and non-parametric models

Climate change is considered a long-term change in precipitation, temperature and other meteorological variables. The pattern of meteorological variables is changing due to anthropogenic activities globally. Climate change has posed threat to natural and human systems. Thus, assessing and forecasting climate variability have become imperative for making resources sustainable and society resilient. This study examined trend and forecasted climate change using parametric and non-parametric methods in the Godavari Middle Sub-basin, India. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were utilized to analyze trend and magnitude of meteorological variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, mean wind speed, mean evaporation and relative humidity. Forecasting of meteorological variables was carried out using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. Increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature was observed at various level of significance. Decreasing trend was observed in mean evaporation at 0.05 level of significance. Decreasing trend in wind speed was also recorded in the sub-basin. February, March, April, June, October and December have shown increasing trend in relative humidity. Total monthly rainfall has shown decreasing trend in the south-eastern part of the sub-basin. Forecast of meteorological variables have also shown decrease in rainfall, increase in maximum and minimum temperature during 2017–2027 creating the sub-basin more prone to dry climate condition. Thus, a policy intervention-oriented climate action plan for lessening the impact of climate change is required in the sub-basin.

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