Cut slopes in Nepal pose significant threats in hilly regions due to weak geology, steep slopes, rainfall, and seismic activity ultimately causing landslide events. This study aims to assess landslide susceptibility and rainfall-induced cut slope stability analysis along the Dumre-Paudhi Bazar road section using geographic information system (GIS) and the GeoStudio package as this approach of accessing the stability has never been performed in the study area. A total of 36 landslides were mapped, and a landslide susceptibility map was developed using the information value method. Ten key causative factors: slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, rainfall, distance from roads, distance from drainage, topographic wetness index (TWI), land use/land cover, and rock and soil distribution were selected based on field observations, geomorphological conditions, and statistical screening using Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses. The study classified the region into five susceptibility zones: very low, low, medium, high and very high using the natural breaks method. Validation was performed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, where an area under curve (AUC) values of 0.796 for training data sets and 0.762 for testing data sets were obtained indicating a success rate of 79.6% and a prediction rate of 76.2%.
To further assess rainfall-induced slope stability, five road cut slopes within medium to very high susceptibility zones were analyzed using the coupled SEEP/W and SLOPE/W approach in GeoStudio under different rainfall scenario. Sensitivity analysis was performed under dry conditions and under rainfall intensities ranging from 50% to 150% of the recorded maximum daily rainfall. The results reveal a consistent reduction in the factor of safety with increasing rainfall intensity due to increased pore water pressure highlighting increased failure potential during heavy precipitation. The integrated approach adopted in this study provides a comprehensive understanding of landslide-prone areas and cut-slope behavior under different rainfall conditions and provides valuable insights for hazard mitigation and road infrastructure planning.
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