Weather effects on natural surface trail use in an urban wilderness multi-use trail system

Previous research has concluded weather conditions can influence physical activity (PA) on trails. However, these studies focused primarily on mixed-use paved surface trails. Many recreational areas use natural surface trails for mountain biking, trail running, and walking. The purpose of this study was to analyze the association between weather conditions and the use of natural surface trails for PA. In addition, this investigation sought to determine if the type of trail surface material, gravel vs. dirt, impacted PA differently by weather factors. Infrared trail counters were used to measure hourly trail use within Knoxville's Urban Wilderness in Knoxville, TN. An onsite weather station was used to obtain hourly weather variables. Negative binomial regression models were used to analyze the relationship between trail use and weather conditions. Both trail locations experienced bi-modal peaks in usage with Spring and Fall months showing the highest usage. As temperature increased, so did trail use (β = 0.115, p = 0.00); however, gravel trail use began to decrease at temperatures above 86 °F. Precipitation negatively impacted trail use on both gravel (β = −3.114, p = 0.00) and dirt (β = −2.281, p = 0.00) trails. Relative humidity and had a negative relationship with trail use on both trails. UVRI (β = −0.036) was only significantly associated with dirt trail use. The direction of the effect of weather measures on natural surface trail use is similar to previous studies on paved trails; however, the magnitude of the effect varies. Gravel trail use was more sensitive to temperature and precipitation, while relative humidity, absolute pressure, and UVRI had a greater impact on dirt trail use. The variations in the magnitude of the effect may be a function of the activity performed on the different trail surfaces. Trail surface material should be considered to fully understand the impact weather has on trail use.

Management implications

By understanding the behaviors of natural surface trail users in response to various weather conditions, managers can adapt their trail planning (i.e., type of trail, surface material), maintenance, and funding for various projects. Managers could collect weather-related information in conjunction with trail surface conditions to inform users of more user-friendly trails during adverse weather events. This could decrease trail maintenance by shifting users to trails that can tolerate more use in poor weather. Additionally, this information would enable managers to develop programs more effectively (e.g., special events, learning clinics) and thus engage more people in outdoor recreation.