最新观测数据为加拿大每小时以下至每小时极端降雨量的增加提供了更有力的证据

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Journal of Climate Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0501.1
Alex J. Cannon, Dae-Il Jeong, Ka-Hing Yau
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 预计全球变暖将导致大气湿度增加,并加剧亚小时至小时极端降雨。然而,信噪比很低,尤其是在局部范围,因此很难在观测记录中发现变化。就加拿大而言,之前基于 1965-2005 年短时数据记录的研究并未显示短时极端降雨量增加的确凿证据。本研究利用 1950-2021 年的数据,更新了加拿大 5 分钟至 24 小时年最大降雨量的单站点和区域趋势分析。对时间趋势的估算还考虑了降雨强度与露点温度(一种衡量水分可用性的指标)之间的关联。记录越长,个别地点极端降雨量增加的证据就越充分。大多数降雨持续时间都有明显的实地增长趋势,而以前的结果则是好坏参半,通常没有统计意义。在单个地点,降雨强度与夏季平均露点温度的比例关系更加明显。在所有降雨持续时间中,都检测到了具有实地意义的正缩放率。无论选择何种区域化方法,当数据在空间上汇集时,结果更加明显。值得注意的是,在每小时以下到 2 小时的持续时间内,短时极端降雨的强度最强,空间均匀度最高。将加拿大各气候区的数据汇总后发现,在 5 分钟至 2 小时持续时间内,72.7% 至 81.8% 的地区出现了显著的正扩展,扩展率中位数为 5.3% 至 9.4%°C-1。在持续时间≥ 6 小时的情况下,这一比例下降到 27.3% 至 53%,缩放率低于 4% ℃-1。
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Updated Observations Provide Stronger Evidence for Increases in Sub-hourly to Hourly Extreme Rainfall in Canada
Abstract Global warming is expected to lead to increases in atmospheric moisture and intensify sub-hourly to hourly rainfall extremes. However, signal-to-noise ratios are low, especially at the local scale, making detection of changes in the observational record difficult. For Canada, previous studies based on short data records from 1965-2005 did not show conclusive evidence of increases in short-duration extreme rainfall. This study updates single-site and regional trend analyses of 5 minute to 24 hour annual maximum rainfall in Canada using data from 1950-2021. Estimates of temporal trends are extended to also consider the association between rainfall intensity and dew point temperature, a measure of moisture availability. With longer records, evidence for increases in extreme rainfall at individual sites is stronger. Field significant increasing trends are found for the majority of durations, whereas before results were mixed and typically not statistically significant. Intensification is even more pronounced in single-site scaling of rainfall intensity with summer mean dew point temperature. Field significant positive scaling rates are detected for all durations. When data are pooled in space – irrespective of choice of regionalization – the results are even more clear. Notably, the strongest and most spatially homogeneous intensification of short-duration extreme rainfall is detected in sub-hourly to 2 hour durations. When data are pooled across Canadian climate regions, field significant positive scaling is found in 72.7% to 81.8% of regions for 5 minute to 2 hour durations, with median scaling rates ranging from 5.3 to 9.4% °C−1. For durations ≥ 6 hours, this falls to 27.3% to 53% of regions, with scaling rates less than 4% °C−1.
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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