坦桑尼亚中部和北部农牧系统的气候风险管理:当地适应的成本与收益

P. Sewando
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摘要

在坦桑尼亚,农牧业做法适应气候变化已有数年。然而,农牧民适应技术的经济效益和成本却没有得到很好的记录。因此,本文分析了适应气候变化和变异性战略的经济效益和成本。分析使用了从坦桑尼亚北部和中部五个地区的 22 个村庄随机抽取的 411 户农牧民家庭收集的原始数据。通过计算净现值、效益成本比和内部收益率,确定了适应战略的效益成本分析。结果发现,与 "一切照旧 "的做法相比,计划中的适应战略在经济上是可行的。敏感性分析还表明,玉米-向日葵间作是可行的,而玉米-大豆间作对 10%的产量变化更为敏感。此外,滴灌和微集水雨水收集有可能通过最大限度地减少用水量和最大限度地提高每公顷产量来促进这些旱地地区的气候风险管理;主要的挑战是初期资本成本较高。因此,推广人员需要继续促进农牧民在管理气候风险方面的作物和牲畜多样化,以减少他们面对气候变化和多变性的脆弱性。此外,研发人员需要向农牧民推广滴灌和微集水雨水收集适应战略,并提高他们的能力。
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Climate Risk Management in Agro-Pastoral Systems of Central and Northern Tanzania: Costs and Benefits of Local Adaptation
In Tanzania, agro-pastoral practices have been adapted to climate change for several years. However, the economic benefits and costs of adaptation techniques for agro-pastoralists have not been well documented. Therefore, this paper analyses the economic benefits and costs of adaptation strategies to climate change and variability. The analysis used primary data collected from 411 agro-pastoral households randomly selected from 22 villages in five districts in northern and central Tanzania. Net present value, benefit-cost ratio and internal rate of return were calculated to determine the benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies. The planned adaptation strategies were found to be financially viable compared to business-as-usual practices. Sensitivity analysis also showed that maize-sunflower intercropping was viable, while maize-bean intercropping was more sensitive to a 10% change in yield. In addition, drip irrigation and micro-catchment rainwater harvesting have the potential to contribute to climate risk management in these dryland areas by minimising water use and maximising output per hectare; the main challenge is the high initial capital cost. There is therefore a need for extension agents to continue to promote crop and livestock diversification among agro-pastoralists in managing climate risks to reduce their vulnerability to climate change and variability. In addition, research and development (R&D) practitioners need to promote and capacitate agro-pastoralists in drip irrigation and micro-catchment rainwater harvesting adaptation strategies.
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