陆地-大气耦合加剧了复合极端事件与水分相关的异质性对中国玉米产量的影响

Zitong Li, Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Shuo Chen, Yiqing Liu, Ran Sun, Ning Zhan
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摘要

复合气候事件是气候变化下作物生产的主要威胁。然而,人们对复合气候事件对作物产量影响的异质性及其驱动因素仍然知之甚少。在本文中,我们采用实证方法评估了 1990 年至 2016 年中国县级热干冷湿复合气候事件对玉米产量的影响,并特别关注了空间异质性。研究结果表明,极端复合冷湿事件(-12.8% ± 3.6%)对玉米产量损失的影响与极端复合干热事件(-11.3% ± 2.1%)相当。复合干热和冷湿事件对玉米产量影响的空间模式主要与水分制度有关,其次是管理方法和土壤特性。具体而言,较干旱的县和粘土及有机碳含量较少的县受复合干热事件的影响更大,而潮湿条件、过量施肥、粘土和富含有机碳的土壤则加剧了复合冷湿事件对玉米产量的影响。此外,土地-大气耦合通过不同的传热加剧了异质性产量影响。在较干旱地区,较高比例的显热在较干旱的土地和较热的大气之间产生了正反馈。相反,在较潮湿地区,较大比例的潜热会在较潮湿的土地和较寒冷的大气之间产生正反馈。我们的研究结果凸显了进一步研究气候变化下农业风险中土地-大气耦合的关键因素。
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Land-atmosphere coupling exacerbates the moisture-associated heterogeneous impacts of compound extreme events on maize yield in China
Compound climate events are major threats to crop production under climate change. However, the heterogeneity in the impact of compound events on crop yield and its drivers remain poorly understood. Herein, we used empirical approach to evaluate the impact of compound hot–dry and cold–wet events on maize yield in China at the county level from 1990 to 2016, with a special focus on the spatial heterogeneity. Our findings indicate comparable impact of extremely compound cold–wet events (−12.8% ± 3.6%) on maize yield loss to extremely compound hot–dry events (−11.3% ± 2.1%). The spatial pattern of compound hot–dry and cold–wet events impacts on maize yield was dominantly associated with moisture regime, followed by management practices and soil properties. Specifically, drier counties and counties with less fraction of clay soil and organic carbon tend to experience greater yield loss due to compound hot–dry events, and wet condition, excessive fertilizer, clay soil and rich organic carbon aggravate the maize yield loss due to compound cold–wet events. Moreover, the land–atmosphere coupling exacerbated the heterogeneous yield impact through divergent heat transfer. In drier regions, the greater proportion of sensible heat creates a positive feedback between drier land and hotter atmosphere. In contrast, the greater proportion of latent heat in wetter regions results in a positive feedback between wetter land and colder atmosphere. Our results highlighted a critical element to explore in further studies focused on the land-atmosphere coupling in agricultural risk under climate change.
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