结构、代理和结构改革:欧洲中央银行案例

Benjamin Braun, Donato Di Carlo, Sebastian Diessner, Maximilian Düsterhöft
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摘要

事实证明,货币和金融一体化会加大各国放宽社会和劳动力市场政策的压力。如果结构不附带说明书,那么货币制度的压力如何转化为政策?通过对欧元区的案例研究,我们发现中央银行在这一过程中发挥了未被充分重视的作用。我们采用混合方法分析了大量数据,包括完整的演讲语料库,追溯了欧洲中央银行在 1999 年至 2019 年期间倡导结构性改革的演变过程。为了解释欧洲央行在其授权范围之外的政策领域的积极性,我们将欧洲央行理论化为在可治理性与合法性之间的两难选择。在灵活的劳动力市场被视为可治理性条件的货币体制下,欧洲央行认为别无选择,只能推动政府进行结构性改革,尽管存在声誉风险。当政治反弹日益加剧,而结构性体制又从通胀环境转向通缩环境时,欧洲央行结束了其倡导工作。
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Structure, Agency, and Structural Reform: The Case of the European Central Bank
Monetary and financial integration has been shown to increase the pressure on states to liberalize social and labor market policies. If structures do not come with instruction sheets, how do monetary regime pressures translate into policy? Through a case study of the euro area, we show that central banks play an underappreciated role in this process. Using mixed methods to analyze a large amount of data, including the complete corpus of speeches, we trace the evolution of the European Central Bank’s advocacy for structural reforms between 1999 and 2019. To explain the ECB’s activism in a policy area beyond its mandate, we theorize the ECB as navigating a dilemma between governability and legitimacy. Handed a monetary regime under which flexible labor markets were seen as a condition for governability, the ECB saw no alternative but to push governments toward structural reforms, despite the reputational risks. The ECB ended its advocacy when increasing political backlash coincided with a structural regime shift from an inflationary to a deflationary environment.
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