Epidemiology and Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Disease-Specific Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Carcinoid Tumor: A SEER-Based Study.

Objectives: Pancreatic carcinoid tumor (PCT) is described as a malignant form of carcinoid tumors. However, the epidemiology and prognostic factors for PCT are poorly understood.

Materials and methods: The data of 2447 PCT patients were included in this study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into a training cohort (1959) and a validation cohort (488). The epidemiology of PCT was calculated, and independent prognostic factors were identified to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) among PCT patients.

Results: The incidence of PCT increased remarkably from 2000 to 2018. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS rates were 96.4%, 90.3%, and 86.5%, respectively. Age at diagnosis, stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors to construct a prognostic nomogram. The C -indices; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS, and calibration plots of the nomogram in both cohorts indicated a high discriminatory accuracy, preferable survival predictive ability, and optimal concordances, respectively.

Conclusions: The incidence of PCT has increased rapidly since 2000. In addition, we established a practical, effective, and accurate prognostic nomogram for predicting the long-term DSS of PCT patients.