Mountain greening and rising temperatures erode habitats of ironwort (Sideritis), an important natural medicinal resource

Native medicinal plants contribute essential health benefits to populations globally, constituting a major natural resource that human societies rely on. Being an integral part of terrestrial biodiversity, medicinal plants are detrimentally affected by ongoing climate and land‐use change, yet comprehensive studies on the risk that extinction will pose to medicinal biodiversity are lacking. Responding to ongoing scientific calls for conserving medicinal biodiversity, this study provides an integrated assessment of the impacts of environmental change on ironwort (Sideritis), a group of closely related endemic plants of great cultural significance as local medicinal resources in the Balkan Mountains. Mountain habitats harbour unique biodiversity and provide vital resources for human well‐being, including natural medicinal resources, yet they are amongst the environments most impacted by global change. While there is ample evidence of recent rapid climate and land‐use change on mountain ecosystems, the impacts of these processes on the habitats of culturally important medicinal plants are still poorly understood. Here, we assess the potential loss of mountain habitats for medicinal plant resources over the past four decades using the culturally important ironwort, a group of endemic medicinal plants of the Balkan Mountains extensively used by local human populations and the pharmaceutical industry for treating cough and cold and gastrointestinal disorders. We used information collected from major European natural history museums to guide extensive field campaigns across 15 separate mountain ranges. We integrate field data with thousands of satellite images, station‐validated climate reanalysis data and habitat suitability modelling. We finally used machine learning to assess the relative roles of climate and vegetation rates of change in driving rates of habitat suitability change. We show that rising temperatures and ‘mountain greening’ erode the habitats of ironwort at alarming rates. About 50% of the total habitat area across all considered mountain ranges shows a significant decline in habitat suitability. These past trends will most likely continue in the future and could lead to widespread local extinction of the species and other medicinal plants that share similar ecological preferences, threatening their future contributions to societal well‐being.