汇率、货币供应量和外汇储备对印度尼西亚石油和天然气出口的影响分析

Danang Wibiyantoro, A. Fatimah, Anggrismono Anggrismono
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摘要

本研究旨在探讨汇率、货币供应量和外汇储备对印度尼西亚石油和天然气出口的影响。研究采用定量方法,使用 2005 年至 2022 年的时间序列数据。采用的方法是 Eviews 12 的误差修正模型。进行的检验包括单位根检验、协整检验、涉及长期和短期检验的误差修正模型以及经典假设检验。分析结果表明,从长期来看,汇率对印尼的石油和天然气出口没有显著影响,而货币供应量和外汇储备对石油和天然气出口有显著影响。从短期来看,汇率和货币供应量都不会对印尼的石油和天然气出口产生重大影响,而外汇储备则对石油和天然气出口有重大影响。
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Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Cadangan Devisa Terhadap Ekspor Migas di Indonesia
This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rates, money supply, and foreign exchange reserves on oil and gas exports in Indonesia. The research adopts a quantitative approach, using time series data from 2005 to 2022. The method employed is the Error Correction Model with Eviews 12. The tests conducted include unit root tests, cointegration tests, the Error Correction Model involving long-term and short-term tests, and classical assumption tests. The results of the analysis reveal that, in the long term, the exchange rate does not significantly affect oil and gas exports in Indonesia, whereas both the money supply and foreign exchange reserves have a significant impact on oil and gas exports. In the short term, neither the exchange rate nor the money supply significantly influence oil and gas exports, while foreign exchange reserves have a significant impact on oil and gas exports in Indonesia.
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