我们得到了我们的人民粹主义者掌权后的态度

Yuchen Luo
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摘要

有关民粹主义态度和民粹主义领导人言论的研究在很大程度上忽视了民粹主义者当选后的态度变化,尤其是民粹主义者的支持者。现有文献指出了两种可能的变化方向。一方面,如果民粹主义态度源于对缺乏代表性的感知,那么我们就会预期,一旦他们心目中的候选人上台执政,人们的民粹主义态度就会下降。另一方面,学者们观察到,民粹主义政治家执政后会继续使用民粹主义言论,这表明他们的支持者的民粹主义态度应该保持不变,甚至有所上升。在本项目中,作者以唐纳德-特朗普及其支持者为研究对象,探讨了这一机制。作者利用 2016 年和 2020 年大选前后进行的一项全国性调查,表明与其他美国选民和其他共和党人相比,特朗普上台后其支持者的民粹主义态度明显下降。作者还证明,民粹主义态度的下降与 "被代表感 "水平的变化有关。根据这些研究结果,作者认为民粹主义态度的驱动力是缺乏代表性的感觉,而不是其他机制。
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We Got Our Guy!: Populist Attitudes after Populists Gain Power
Research on populist attitudes and populist leaders’ narratives has largely overlooked what happens to populist attitudes after a populist is elected, especially among the populist’s supporters. Existing literature points to two possible directions of change. On one hand, if populist attitudes stem from a perceived lack of representation, then we would expect people’s populist attitudes to decrease once their preferred candidate is in power. On the other hand, scholars have observed that populist politicians in power continue to deploy populist rhetoric, suggesting that their supporters’ populist attitudes should stay constant or even increase. In this project, the author focuses on Donald Trump and his supporters to explore this mechanism. Drawing on a national survey conducted around the 2016 and 2020 elections, the author shows that Trump’s supporters saw a significant decrease in populist attitudes after he came into power compared with both other American voters and other Republicans. The author also demonstrates that this decrease in populist attitudes is associated with changes in the level of “feeling represented.” On the basis of these findings, the author argues that populist attitudes are driven by feelings of lack of representation over other mechanisms.
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