Ungulates mitigate the effects of drought and shrub encroachment on the fire hazard of Mediterranean oak woodlands

Climate change is increasing the frequency of droughts and the risk of severe wildfires, which can interact with shrub encroachment and browsing by wild ungulates. Wild ungulate populations are expanding due, among other factors, to favorable habitat changes resulting from land abandonment or land-use changes. Understanding how ungulate browsing interacts with drought to affect woody plant mortality, plant flammability, and fire hazard is especially relevant in the context of climate change and increasing frequency of wildfires. The aim of this study is to explore the combined effects of cumulative drought, shrub encroachment, and ungulate browsing on the fire hazard of Mediterranean oak woodlands in Portugal. In a long-term (18 years) ungulate fencing exclusion experiment that simulated land abandonment and management neglect, we investigated the population dynamics of the native shrub Cistus ladanifer, which naturally dominates the understory of woodlands and is browsed by ungulates, comparing areas with (no fencing) and without (fencing) wild ungulate browsing. We also modeled fire behavior in browsed and unbrowsed plots considering drought and nondrought scenarios. Specifically, we estimated C. ladanifer population density, biomass, and fuel load characteristics, which were used to model fire behavior in drought and nondrought scenarios. Overall, drought increased the proportion of dead C. ladanifer shrub individuals, which was higher in the browsed plots. Drought decreased the ratio of live to dead shrub plant material, increased total fuel loading, shrub stand flammability, and the modeled fire parameters, that is, rate of surface fire spread, fireline intensity, and flame length. However, total fuel load and fire hazard were lower in browsed than unbrowsed plots, both in drought and nondrought scenarios. Browsing also decreased the population density of living shrubs, halting shrub encroachment. Our study provides long-term experimental evidence showing the role of wild ungulates in mitigating drought effects on fire hazard in shrub-encroached Mediterranean oak woodlands. Our results also emphasize that the long-term effects of land abandonment can interact with climate change drivers, affecting wildfire hazard. This is particularly relevant given the increasing incidence of land abandonment.