Exploring the performance of protected areas in alleviating future human pressure

Protected areas (PAs) are effective in mitigating human pressures, yet their future pressure alleviating effects remain unclear. In this study, we employed the ConvLSTM model to forecast the future human footprint and analyzed human pressure trends using Theil–Sen median and Mann–Kendall tests. We further evaluated the mitigating effects of PAs within their buffer zones (1–10 km) and the contributions of different IUCN categories of PAs to mitigating human pressure using linear regression models. The results indicate that by 2035, the average human pressure value is expected to increase by 11%, with trends exhibiting a polarized pattern. Furthermore, PAs also effectively mitigate human pressure within their 1 km buffer zones. Different categories of PAs vary in their effectiveness in mitigating human pressure, and stricter conservation areas are not always the most effective. This study can offer insights for evaluating the effectiveness of PAs in reducing human pressure and advocate for their targeted management in urban areas.