模型中陆地表层和地表气温多年变化趋势的互换性

Mark T. Richardson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

卫星陆地表面温度(Ts)记录现已达到 20 多年的长度,但其趋势可能与近地面气温(Tas)原位测量建立的历史记录不同。在ERA5再分析中,南纬60°-北纬60°陆地Ts和Tas在20年内的趋势差异可达±0.06°C decade-1(取决于时期),在较小的空间尺度上差异更大。在此,我利用 1979-1998 年 ACCESS1-0 气候模式模拟的陆地 Ts 输出结果来了解 Ts 和 Tas 的变化。二氧化碳的有效辐射强迫(ERF)会导致相对于Ts的Tas变暖。在 ACCESS1-0 中,植被增强了陆地对 CO2 的调节。与此同时,ACCESS1-0 中的反馈作用反对这种调整,导致对全球温度估计的长期净影响很小。在其他模式的耦合模拟中,Ts 或 Tas 的升温幅度并不一致,最极端的情况是陆地 Ts 或陆地 Tas 趋势的全球长期差异仅为 5%。这些结果与大洋行为形成了鲜明对比,在大洋行为中,调整和反馈相互加强,在所有模式中,大洋的长期升温幅度大于陆地的升温幅度。
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Interchangeability of multi-decade skin and surface air temperature trends over land in models
Satellite land surface temperature (Ts) records have now reached 20+ year length, but their trends may differ from historical records built from in-situ measurements of near-surface air temperature (Tas). In the ERA5 reanalysis, 60°S—60°N land Ts and Tas trends can differ by up to ±0.06 °C decade-1 over 20 years, depending on the period, or more on smaller spatial scales. Here I use 1979—1998 outputs from ACCESS1-0 climate model simulations with prescribed land Ts to understand changes in Ts and Tas. CO2’s effective radiative forcing (ERF) causes adjustments that warm Tas relative to Ts. In ACCESS1-0, vegetation enhances the adjustments to CO2 over land. Meanwhile, feedbacks in ACCESS1-0 oppose the adjustments, resulting in small long-term net effects on global temperature estimates. In coupled simulations from other models, there is no agreement on whether Ts or Tas warms more and the most extreme case shows global long-term differences of just 5 % between land Ts or land Tas trends. The results contrast with over-ocean behaviour where adjustments and feedbacks reinforce each other, and drive larger long-term Tas warming relative to Ts across all models.
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