全球与地区碳税:探索自然实验

Bodo Herzog
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摘要

由于气候变化,减少全球温室气体排放已成为当务之急。各学科的科学家们提倡将碳税或碳定价作为减轻化石能源负面外部性的工具。我们通过一个新颖的自然实验,展示了当今监管政策的两个不足之处。首先,碳税只有在全球范围内实施才有效,因为化石能源市场和排放是跨国界和全球性的。其次,碳税基于外在机制,并不能持续改变内在行为。我们的应用理论和建模方法证实了这些结论。由于欧洲国家好高骛远,而世界其他国家则缺乏雄心壮志(部分现实),目前的监管方法注定要失败。我们的跨学科分析揭示了实现基本目标的新议程。我们需要的是诺贝尔奖得主威廉-诺德豪斯(William Nordhaus)提出的全球气候俱乐部,其目标是减少全球温室气体排放。
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Global Versus Regional Carbon Taxation: Exploring a Natural Experiment
The reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions has priority due to climate change. Scientists across disciplines promote carbon taxation or carbon pricing as an instrument to mitigate the negative externality of fossil energies. We exhibit two insufficiencies of today’s regulatory policy by utilizing a novel natural experiment. First, carbon taxation is only effective if it is implemented on a global scale because fossil energy markets and emissions are cross-border and global. Second, carbon taxation is based on an extrinsic mechanism and does not alter intrinsic behaviour sustainably. Our applied theory and modelling approach is corroborating these findings. The present regulatory approach is doomed to fail due to overambitious European countries and unambitious (partly realistic) rest of the world. Our interdisciplinary analysis unravels a new agenda to achieve the essential aim. What is needed is a global climate club, as proposed by Nobel Laureate William Nordhaus, with a least but global greenhouse gas reduction.
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