水汽来源的变化导致了 2017-2019 年澳大利亚东南部干旱的发生和发展

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100672
Andréa S. Taschetto , Milica Stojanovic , Chiara M. Holgate , Anita Drumond , Jason P. Evans , Luis Gimeno , Raquel Nieto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2017-2019 年,澳大利亚东南部经历了自 1900 年以来最严重的干旱之一。包括墨累-达令盆地在内的地区降雨量连续三个凉季持续低于平均水平,这是有史以来前所未有的事件。此前曾有观点认为,印度洋偶极子强正向事件加剧了 2019 年的干旱状况,但气候驱动因素的状况并不能完全解释此次干旱的发生和发展。在本研究中,我们采用了一种不同的方法来研究除遥远气候驱动因素之外可能引发干旱的其他过程。我们使用拉格朗日模型来确定墨累达令盆地的水汽来源,结果表明当地过程对解释干旱的发生和发展至关重要。我们确定了墨累达令盆地上空大气水汽的海洋和陆地来源,并首次表明 2017 年和 2018 年塔斯曼海的降雨水汽供应量显著下降。我们进一步表明,异常的大气环流将预期的水汽向北输送到了海洋大陆。我们的研究结果为造成 2017-19 年澳大利亚东南部干旱的水汽和降雨不足提供了解释。了解导致 2017-2019 年干旱的过程是改进澳大利亚未来多年干旱预测和规划的重要一步。
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Changes in moisture sources contributed to the onset and development of the 2017-2019 southeast Australian drought

In 2017-2019 southeast Australia experienced one of its most severe droughts since 1900. Rainfall over the region encompassing the Murray-Darling Basin was consistently below average for three consecutive cool seasons, an unprecedented event on record. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has been previously suggested to have intensified the conditions of the drought in 2019, however the state of the climate drivers cannot fully explain the onset and development of this drought. In this study, we adopt a different approach to investigate processes other than remote climate drivers that may have triggered the drought. Using a Lagrangian model to identify moisture sources to the Murray Darling Basin, we show that local processes were crucial in explaining the onset and development of the drought. We identify the oceanic and terrestrial sources of atmospheric moisture over the Murray Darling Basin and show for the first time a significant decline in rainfall moisture supply from the Tasman Sea in 2017 and 2018. We further show that anomalous atmospheric circulation transported the expected moisture northward toward the Maritime Continent. Our results provide an explanation for the moisture and rainfall deficit that caused the 2017-19 southeast Australian drought. Understanding the processes that led to the 2017-2019 drought is an important step towards improved predictions and planning for future multi-year droughts in Australia.

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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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