{"title":"模拟影响系统可用性的纠正措施：系统动力学方法","authors":"Fatemeh Shaker, Arash Shahin, Saeed Jahanyan","doi":"10.1108/jm2-07-2023-0136","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>This paper aims to simulate vital corrective actions (CAs) affecting system availability through a system dynamics approach based on the results obtained by analyzing the causal relationships among failure modes and effects analysis elements.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>A stock and flow diagram has been developed to simulate system behaviors during a timeframe. Some improvement scenarios regarding the most necessary CAs according to their strategic priority and the possibility of eliminating root causes of critical failure modes in a roller-transmission system have been simulated and analyzed to choose the most effective one(s) for the system availability. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
目的 本文旨在通过系统动力学方法，根据故障模式和效应分析要素之间因果关系的分析结果，模拟影响系统可用性的重要纠正措施（CA）。模拟并分析了一些改进方案，这些方案涉及根据战略优先级选择最必要的 CA，以及消除滚筒传输系统中关键故障模式的根本原因的可能性，以选择对系统可用性最有效的 CA。研究结果表明，最有效的 CA 可消除或减少导致系统可靠性降低的关键故障原因。原创性/价值这项研究的创新之处在于，通过 VENSIM 软件的改进方案模拟，对故障模式、影响和原因之间随时间变化的相互作用进行动态分析，从而预测系统行为，并通过选择最有效的 CA 来提高可用性。
Simulating the corrective actions affecting system availability: a system dynamics approach
Purpose
This paper aims to simulate vital corrective actions (CAs) affecting system availability through a system dynamics approach based on the results obtained by analyzing the causal relationships among failure modes and effects analysis elements.
Design/methodology/approach
A stock and flow diagram has been developed to simulate system behaviors during a timeframe. Some improvement scenarios regarding the most necessary CAs according to their strategic priority and the possibility of eliminating root causes of critical failure modes in a roller-transmission system have been simulated and analyzed to choose the most effective one(s) for the system availability. The proposed approach has been examined in a steel-manufacturing company.
Findings
Results indicated the most effective CAs to remove or diminish critical failure causes that led to the less reliability of the system. It illustrated the impacts of the selected CAs on eliminating or decreasing root causes of the critical failure modes, lessening the system’s failure rate and increasing the system availability more effectively.
Research limitations/implications
Results allow managers and decision-makers to consider different maintenance scenarios without wasting time and more cost, choosing the most appropriate option according to system conditions.
Originality/value
This study innovation would be the dynamic analysis of interactions among failure modes, effects and causes over time to predict the system behavior and improve availability by choosing the most effective CAs through improvement scenario simulation via VENSIM software.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Modelling in Management (JM2) provides a forum for academics and researchers with a strong interest in business and management modelling. The journal analyses the conceptual antecedents and theoretical underpinnings leading to research modelling processes which derive useful consequences in terms of management science, business and management implementation and applications. JM2 is focused on the utilization of management data, which is amenable to research modelling processes, and welcomes academic papers that not only encompass the whole research process (from conceptualization to managerial implications) but also make explicit the individual links between ''antecedents and modelling'' (how to tackle certain problems) and ''modelling and consequences'' (how to apply the models and draw appropriate conclusions). The journal is particularly interested in innovative methodological and statistical modelling processes and those models that result in clear and justified managerial decisions. JM2 specifically promotes and supports research writing, that engages in an academically rigorous manner, in areas related to research modelling such as: A priori theorizing conceptual models, Artificial intelligence, machine learning, Association rule mining, clustering, feature selection, Business analytics: Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive Analytics, Causal analytics: structural equation modeling, partial least squares modeling, Computable general equilibrium models, Computer-based models, Data mining, data analytics with big data, Decision support systems and business intelligence, Econometric models, Fuzzy logic modeling, Generalized linear models, Multi-attribute decision-making models, Non-linear models, Optimization, Simulation models, Statistical decision models, Statistical inference making and probabilistic modeling, Text mining, web mining, and visual analytics, Uncertainty-based reasoning models.
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