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引用次数: 0
摘要
我们评估了 1960Q1-2022Q4 期间中国与三个主要贸易伙伴(美国、德国和英国)的双边政治关系对经常账户余额和汇率的影响。利用时变格兰杰因果检验的滞后增量 VAR 方法,我们发现,与中国的政治关系在解释经常账户和汇率的动态方面具有重要作用,支持了 "贸易随国旗走 "的观点。这种关系导致了汇率(英国除外)和经常账户的演变;这些因果关系在美国和英国是时变的,而在德国则在整个时期内是稳健的。这些研究结果表明,决策者应考虑双边政治关系,以了解政治紧张局势对全球宏观经济的影响。
On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?
We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1–2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates, supporting the “trade follows the flag” view. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions.
期刊介绍:
The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.