{"title":"全球海上风能的稳定性呈现积极趋势","authors":"Chongwei Zheng","doi":"10.1007/s13131-024-2345-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The recognition on the trend of wind energy stability is still extremely rare, although it is closely related to acquisition efficiency, grid connection, equipment lifetime, and costs of wind energy utilization. Using the 40-year (1979–2018) ERA-Interim data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study presented the spatial-temporal distribution and climatic trend of the stability of global offshore wind energy as well as the abrupt phenomenon of wind energy stability in key regions over the past 40 years with the climatic analysis method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results show the following 5 points. (1) According to the coefficient of variation (<i>C</i><sub>v</sub>) of the wind power density, there are six permanent stable zones of global offshore wind energy: the southeast and northeast trade wind zones in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Southern Hemisphere westerly, and a semi-permanent stable zone (North Indian Ocean). (2) There are six low-value zones for both seasonal variability index (<i>S</i><sub>v</sub>) and monthly variability index (<i>M</i><sub>v</sub>) globally, with a similar spatial distribution as that of the six permanent stable zones. <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> in the Arabian Sea are the highest in the world. (3) After <i>C</i><sub>v</sub>, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> are comprehensively considered, the six permanent stable zones have an obvious advantage in the stability of wind energy over other sea areas, with <i>C</i><sub>v</sub> below 0.8, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> within 1.0, and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> within 0.7 all the year round. (4) The global stability of offshore wind energy shows a positive climatic trend for the past four decades. <i>C</i><sub>v</sub>, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> have not changed significantly or decreased in most of the global ocean during 1979 to 2018. That is, wind energy is flat or more stable, while the monthly and seasonal variabilities tend to shrink/smooth, which is beneficial for wind energy utilization. (5) <i>C</i><sub>v</sub> in the low-latitude Pacific and <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> in both the North Indian Ocean and the low-latitude Pacific have an obvious abrupt phenomenon at the end of the 20th century.</p>","PeriodicalId":6922,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oceanologica Sinica","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A positive trend in the stability of global offshore wind energy\",\"authors\":\"Chongwei Zheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s13131-024-2345-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The recognition on the trend of wind energy stability is still extremely rare, although it is closely related to acquisition efficiency, grid connection, equipment lifetime, and costs of wind energy utilization. Using the 40-year (1979–2018) ERA-Interim data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study presented the spatial-temporal distribution and climatic trend of the stability of global offshore wind energy as well as the abrupt phenomenon of wind energy stability in key regions over the past 40 years with the climatic analysis method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results show the following 5 points. (1) According to the coefficient of variation (<i>C</i><sub>v</sub>) of the wind power density, there are six permanent stable zones of global offshore wind energy: the southeast and northeast trade wind zones in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Southern Hemisphere westerly, and a semi-permanent stable zone (North Indian Ocean). (2) There are six low-value zones for both seasonal variability index (<i>S</i><sub>v</sub>) and monthly variability index (<i>M</i><sub>v</sub>) globally, with a similar spatial distribution as that of the six permanent stable zones. <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> in the Arabian Sea are the highest in the world. (3) After <i>C</i><sub>v</sub>, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> are comprehensively considered, the six permanent stable zones have an obvious advantage in the stability of wind energy over other sea areas, with <i>C</i><sub>v</sub> below 0.8, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> within 1.0, and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> within 0.7 all the year round. (4) The global stability of offshore wind energy shows a positive climatic trend for the past four decades. <i>C</i><sub>v</sub>, <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> have not changed significantly or decreased in most of the global ocean during 1979 to 2018. That is, wind energy is flat or more stable, while the monthly and seasonal variabilities tend to shrink/smooth, which is beneficial for wind energy utilization. (5) <i>C</i><sub>v</sub> in the low-latitude Pacific and <i>M</i><sub>v</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>v</sub> in both the North Indian Ocean and the low-latitude Pacific have an obvious abrupt phenomenon at the end of the 20th century.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":6922,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Acta Oceanologica Sinica\",\"volume\":\"61 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Acta Oceanologica Sinica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-024-2345-4\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"OCEANOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Acta Oceanologica Sinica","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-024-2345-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A positive trend in the stability of global offshore wind energy
The recognition on the trend of wind energy stability is still extremely rare, although it is closely related to acquisition efficiency, grid connection, equipment lifetime, and costs of wind energy utilization. Using the 40-year (1979–2018) ERA-Interim data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study presented the spatial-temporal distribution and climatic trend of the stability of global offshore wind energy as well as the abrupt phenomenon of wind energy stability in key regions over the past 40 years with the climatic analysis method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results show the following 5 points. (1) According to the coefficient of variation (Cv) of the wind power density, there are six permanent stable zones of global offshore wind energy: the southeast and northeast trade wind zones in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Southern Hemisphere westerly, and a semi-permanent stable zone (North Indian Ocean). (2) There are six low-value zones for both seasonal variability index (Sv) and monthly variability index (Mv) globally, with a similar spatial distribution as that of the six permanent stable zones. Mv and Sv in the Arabian Sea are the highest in the world. (3) After Cv, Mv and Sv are comprehensively considered, the six permanent stable zones have an obvious advantage in the stability of wind energy over other sea areas, with Cv below 0.8, Mv within 1.0, and Sv within 0.7 all the year round. (4) The global stability of offshore wind energy shows a positive climatic trend for the past four decades. Cv, Mv and Sv have not changed significantly or decreased in most of the global ocean during 1979 to 2018. That is, wind energy is flat or more stable, while the monthly and seasonal variabilities tend to shrink/smooth, which is beneficial for wind energy utilization. (5) Cv in the low-latitude Pacific and Mv and Sv in both the North Indian Ocean and the low-latitude Pacific have an obvious abrupt phenomenon at the end of the 20th century.
期刊介绍:
Founded in 1982, Acta Oceanologica Sinica is the official bi-monthly journal of the Chinese Society of Oceanography. It seeks to provide a forum for research papers in the field of oceanography from all over the world. In working to advance scholarly communication it has made the fast publication of high-quality research papers within this field its primary goal.
The journal encourages submissions from all branches of oceanography, including marine physics, marine chemistry, marine geology, marine biology, marine hydrology, marine meteorology, ocean engineering, marine remote sensing and marine environment sciences.
It publishes original research papers, review articles as well as research notes covering the whole spectrum of oceanography. Special issues emanating from related conferences and meetings are also considered. All papers are subject to peer review and are published online at SpringerLink.