如果我们一起合作,我们就一起干预:国防合作协议和对冲突各方的支持

IF 1.7 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Conflict Management and Peace Science Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI:10.1177/07388942241247953
Sara Norrevik, Mehwish Sarwari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着各国政府越来越多地采用防务合作协议(DCA)将防务关系制度化,学术界对这些协议在内战中的影响却知之甚少。与没有签订防务合作协议的国家相比,签订防务合作协议的国家是否更有可能共同对内战进行军事干预?研究表明,正式的结盟承诺会影响各方参与外国干预的可能性,但尽管伙伴国之间经常签署 DCA,而且可能会发生变化,但 DCA 在文献中却很少受到关注。本研究认为,DCA 中的伙伴国有可能向相同的冲突方提供外部军事支持。我们的理论模型表明,《地区冲突协议》提供了一个社会化的舞台,作为《地区冲突协议》伙伴的政府和军事组织会在这个舞台上反复互动。由于社会化的结果,它们的外交政策目标越来越一致,包括它们对外国冲突进行军事干预的方法。由于可以获得类似的武器材料、军事训练和信息,DCA 促进了伙伴国之间的联合干预。通过研究 1980-2009 年间对国内冲突的干预概率,我们发现,与没有发展中非洲协定的国家相比,发展中非洲协定伙伴国更有可能向相同的交战方提供军事援助。
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If we cooperate together, we intervene together: Defense cooperation agreements and support to conflict parties
As governments increasingly turn to defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) to institutionalize defense relations, there is little scholarly knowledge of the impact of these agreements in civil wars. Are DCA partners more likely to militarily intervene in civil conflicts together compared with countries without DCAs? While studies show that formal alliance commitments impact the likelihood of parties participating in foreign interventions, DCAs have received little attention in the literature even though DCAs between partner states are signed frequently and subject to change. This study argues that partners in DCAs are likely to provide external military support to the same conflict parties. Our theoretical model suggests that DCAs provide an arena for socialization where governments and military organizations that are DCA partners have repeated interactions. As a result of socialization, their foreign policy goals increasingly align, including their approach to military intervention in foreign conflicts. With access to similar weapons material, military training, and information, DCAs facilitate joint interventions between partner states. Examining the probability of intervention in civil conflicts during the period of 1980–2009, we find that countries that are DCA partners are more likely to provide military assistance to the same warring parties compared with countries without DCAs.
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来源期刊
Conflict Management and Peace Science
Conflict Management and Peace Science INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
4.80%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year from 2009. It contains scientific papers on topics such as: - international conflict; - arms races; - the effect of international trade on political interactions; - foreign policy decision making; - international mediation; - and game theoretic approaches to conflict and cooperation. Affiliated with the Peace Science Society (International), Conflict Management and Peace Science features original and review articles focused on news and events related to the scientific study of conflict and peace. Members of the Peace Science Society (International) receive an annual subscription to Conflict Management and Peace Science as a benefit of membership.
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