Research on B2C Cross-Border Electronic Commerce Return Logistics Model Selection Based on Estimated Return Rate

This paper investigates the estimated return rate and optimal order quantity under three cross-border e-commerce return logistics modes: direct mail (from predecessor), in situ destruction (new), and insurance (new). The estimated return rate under each model was analyzed and it was found that different modes have different thresholds in delivery lead time (the time retailers need to deliver goods to customers), and within which the estimated return rate increases as the delivery lead time increases. And a size comparison of the estimated return rates for the three models was conducted. A profit model was constructed based on the estimated return rate model, the optimal order quantity was calculated, and the effects of different factors (tax, postage, and delivery lead time etc.) on it were analyzed. For the insurance model, the effect of bearing the insurance ratio between retailers and consumers on the optimal order quantity was examined. The goal of this paper was to construct a model of the estimated return rate for the two new modes and to compare the estimated return rate of the three modes, which provides a reference for retailers to choose among the diversified return logistics modes and then make the best ordering strategy according to the influence of different factors on the optimal order quantity.