流行病学风险因素和疙瘩病病毒传入和传播风险评估建模方法:方法学回顾及对澳大利亚基于风险的监测的影响

IF 3.5 2区 农林科学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI:10.1155/2024/3090226
Kei Owada, Timothy J. Mahony, Rebecca K. Ambrose, Ben J. Hayes, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães
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引用次数: 0

摘要

块皮病(LSD)是一种由痘病毒块皮病病毒(LSDV)引起的病媒传染病,是牛、水牛和班腾的一种严重疾病。虽然这种疾病从未在澳大利亚发生过,但它对澳大利亚养牛业的威胁与日俱增,因为这种疾病正在亚洲各地蔓延。开发地理空间决策支持工具(如空间流行病学建模)可能有助于评估面临这种威胁风险较大的地区。为了指导疾病建模方法的设计以支持未来基于风险的监测,需要对现有的 LSDV 流行病学模型进行评估。在本研究中,我们进行了文献综述,以评估现有的 LSDV 流行病学模型,确定 LSDV 引入和传播的关键风险因素,并考虑以前采用的控制策略。我们采用了 PRISMA 指南来制定文章选择和信息提取流程,并采用 PICO 流程来制定搜索条件。我们从符合纳入标准的研究中提取了有关 LSDV 流行病学模型结构和参数化、LSDV 传播和扩散的风险因素以及生物安全控制策略的信息。文献检索从四个数据库中共检索到 402 篇文章,经过筛选,确定将其中 68 篇纳入本综述。在这 68 篇综述文章中,47 篇探讨了与 LSDV 传播和扩散相关的风险因素,4 篇探讨了 LSDV 引入的风险因素,4 篇探讨了无 LSD 国家的现有监控策略,14 篇介绍了流行病学模型。我们的研究结果表明,LSDV 在 LSD 流行国家传播的风险因素多种多样,包括受感染病媒(如厩蝇)的长距离空中传播和牛群在国家间的陆地边界移动。LSD病毒在LSD流行国家传播的主要风险因素包括物理环境特征、天气条件以及牲畜和病媒的种群分布。我们的研究结果表明,虽然已经开展了各种建模研究,但大多数研究都是通过实验探索 LSD 在病媒和牛群中的传播机制。空间和时空模型主要是针对 LSD 流行国家开发的,重点关注与之前 LSD 事件相关的环境因素对疾病传播的影响。关于无 LSD 国家的研究很少,而且这些研究只关注通过特定进入途径引入 LSD 的风险。本综述没有发现任何文献探讨 LSDV 传入无 LSD 国家后的传播风险,也没有发现任何文献探讨无 LSD 国家是否适合 LSDV 入侵的地理空间模型。结合已发现文献中描述的风险参数和模型,有必要考虑澳大利亚特有的各种风险因素,以便为澳大利亚基于风险的 LSD 监控设计提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne infection caused by the poxvirus lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and is a serious disease of cattle, water buffalo, and banteng. While the disease has never occurred in Australia, it is regarded as a growing threat to the Australian cattle industry as there is on-going spread of the disease throughout Asia. The development of geospatial decision support tools, such as spatial epidemiological modelling, may assist in assessing areas at greater risk of this threat. To guide the design of disease modelling approaches to support future risk-based surveillance, existing LSDV epidemiological models need to be evaluated. In this study, we performed a literature review to evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models, identify key risk factors for introduction and spread of LSDV, and consider previously adopted control strategies. The PRISMA guidelines were used to establish the processes for article selection and information extraction, and the PICO process was used to formulate search terms. From studies that met our inclusion criteria, we extracted information on LSDV epidemiological model structure and parameterisation, risk factors for LSDV transmission and spread, and biosecurity control strategies. The literature search retrieved a total of 402 articles from four databases, of which 68 were identified for inclusion in this review following screening. Of the 68 articles reviewed, 47 explored risk factors associated with LSDV transmission and spread, four explored risk factors of LSDV introduction, four explored existing surveillance strategies in LSD-free countries, and 14 presented epidemiological models. Our findings indicate that there are various risk factors for LSDV transmission in LSD endemic countries, including long-distance airborne movement of infected vectors such as stable flies and cattle movement between countries over land borders. Key risk factors for LSDV spread in LSD endemic countries include physical environmental characteristics, weather conditions, and population distributions of livestock and vectors. Our results indicate that while a variety of modelling studies have been conducted, the majority of studies experimentally explored LSD transmission mechanisms in vectors and cattle. Spatial and spatio-temporal models have primarily been developed for LSD endemic countries and focus on the spread of the disease in terms of environmental factors in relation to previous LSD events. There were very few studies on LSD-free countries, and these only focussed on risk of LSD introduction through specific entry pathways. This review did not identify any literature exploring the risk of spread of LSDV following introduction in LSD-free countries or geospatial modelling of the suitability of LSD-free countries for LSDV incursions. In conjunction with the risk parameters and models described in the identified literature, there is need to consider a wide range of risk factors specific to Australia to inform the design of risk-based surveillance for LSD in Australia.

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来源期刊
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 农林科学-传染病学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
9.30%
发文量
350
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions): Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread. Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope. Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies. Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies). Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.
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