Kei Owada, Timothy J. Mahony, Rebecca K. Ambrose, Ben J. Hayes, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães
{"title":"流行病学风险因素和疙瘩病病毒传入和传播风险评估建模方法:方法学回顾及对澳大利亚基于风险的监测的影响","authors":"Kei Owada, Timothy J. Mahony, Rebecca K. Ambrose, Ben J. Hayes, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães","doi":"10.1155/2024/3090226","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n <p>Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne infection caused by the poxvirus lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and is a serious disease of cattle, water buffalo, and banteng. While the disease has never occurred in Australia, it is regarded as a growing threat to the Australian cattle industry as there is on-going spread of the disease throughout Asia. The development of geospatial decision support tools, such as spatial epidemiological modelling, may assist in assessing areas at greater risk of this threat. To guide the design of disease modelling approaches to support future risk-based surveillance, existing LSDV epidemiological models need to be evaluated. In this study, we performed a literature review to evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models, identify key risk factors for introduction and spread of LSDV, and consider previously adopted control strategies. The PRISMA guidelines were used to establish the processes for article selection and information extraction, and the PICO process was used to formulate search terms. From studies that met our inclusion criteria, we extracted information on LSDV epidemiological model structure and parameterisation, risk factors for LSDV transmission and spread, and biosecurity control strategies. The literature search retrieved a total of 402 articles from four databases, of which 68 were identified for inclusion in this review following screening. Of the 68 articles reviewed, 47 explored risk factors associated with LSDV transmission and spread, four explored risk factors of LSDV introduction, four explored existing surveillance strategies in LSD-free countries, and 14 presented epidemiological models. Our findings indicate that there are various risk factors for LSDV transmission in LSD endemic countries, including long-distance airborne movement of infected vectors such as stable flies and cattle movement between countries over land borders. Key risk factors for LSDV spread in LSD endemic countries include physical environmental characteristics, weather conditions, and population distributions of livestock and vectors. Our results indicate that while a variety of modelling studies have been conducted, the majority of studies experimentally explored LSD transmission mechanisms in vectors and cattle. Spatial and spatio-temporal models have primarily been developed for LSD endemic countries and focus on the spread of the disease in terms of environmental factors in relation to previous LSD events. There were very few studies on LSD-free countries, and these only focussed on risk of LSD introduction through specific entry pathways. This review did not identify any literature exploring the risk of spread of LSDV following introduction in LSD-free countries or geospatial modelling of the suitability of LSD-free countries for LSDV incursions. In conjunction with the risk parameters and models described in the identified literature, there is need to consider a wide range of risk factors specific to Australia to inform the design of risk-based surveillance for LSD in Australia.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":234,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"2024 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1155/2024/3090226","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia\",\"authors\":\"Kei Owada, Timothy J. Mahony, Rebecca K. Ambrose, Ben J. Hayes, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães\",\"doi\":\"10.1155/2024/3090226\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n <p>Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne infection caused by the poxvirus lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and is a serious disease of cattle, water buffalo, and banteng. While the disease has never occurred in Australia, it is regarded as a growing threat to the Australian cattle industry as there is on-going spread of the disease throughout Asia. The development of geospatial decision support tools, such as spatial epidemiological modelling, may assist in assessing areas at greater risk of this threat. To guide the design of disease modelling approaches to support future risk-based surveillance, existing LSDV epidemiological models need to be evaluated. In this study, we performed a literature review to evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models, identify key risk factors for introduction and spread of LSDV, and consider previously adopted control strategies. The PRISMA guidelines were used to establish the processes for article selection and information extraction, and the PICO process was used to formulate search terms. From studies that met our inclusion criteria, we extracted information on LSDV epidemiological model structure and parameterisation, risk factors for LSDV transmission and spread, and biosecurity control strategies. The literature search retrieved a total of 402 articles from four databases, of which 68 were identified for inclusion in this review following screening. Of the 68 articles reviewed, 47 explored risk factors associated with LSDV transmission and spread, four explored risk factors of LSDV introduction, four explored existing surveillance strategies in LSD-free countries, and 14 presented epidemiological models. Our findings indicate that there are various risk factors for LSDV transmission in LSD endemic countries, including long-distance airborne movement of infected vectors such as stable flies and cattle movement between countries over land borders. Key risk factors for LSDV spread in LSD endemic countries include physical environmental characteristics, weather conditions, and population distributions of livestock and vectors. Our results indicate that while a variety of modelling studies have been conducted, the majority of studies experimentally explored LSD transmission mechanisms in vectors and cattle. Spatial and spatio-temporal models have primarily been developed for LSD endemic countries and focus on the spread of the disease in terms of environmental factors in relation to previous LSD events. There were very few studies on LSD-free countries, and these only focussed on risk of LSD introduction through specific entry pathways. This review did not identify any literature exploring the risk of spread of LSDV following introduction in LSD-free countries or geospatial modelling of the suitability of LSD-free countries for LSDV incursions. 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Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne infection caused by the poxvirus lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and is a serious disease of cattle, water buffalo, and banteng. While the disease has never occurred in Australia, it is regarded as a growing threat to the Australian cattle industry as there is on-going spread of the disease throughout Asia. The development of geospatial decision support tools, such as spatial epidemiological modelling, may assist in assessing areas at greater risk of this threat. To guide the design of disease modelling approaches to support future risk-based surveillance, existing LSDV epidemiological models need to be evaluated. In this study, we performed a literature review to evaluate existing LSDV epidemiological models, identify key risk factors for introduction and spread of LSDV, and consider previously adopted control strategies. The PRISMA guidelines were used to establish the processes for article selection and information extraction, and the PICO process was used to formulate search terms. From studies that met our inclusion criteria, we extracted information on LSDV epidemiological model structure and parameterisation, risk factors for LSDV transmission and spread, and biosecurity control strategies. The literature search retrieved a total of 402 articles from four databases, of which 68 were identified for inclusion in this review following screening. Of the 68 articles reviewed, 47 explored risk factors associated with LSDV transmission and spread, four explored risk factors of LSDV introduction, four explored existing surveillance strategies in LSD-free countries, and 14 presented epidemiological models. Our findings indicate that there are various risk factors for LSDV transmission in LSD endemic countries, including long-distance airborne movement of infected vectors such as stable flies and cattle movement between countries over land borders. Key risk factors for LSDV spread in LSD endemic countries include physical environmental characteristics, weather conditions, and population distributions of livestock and vectors. Our results indicate that while a variety of modelling studies have been conducted, the majority of studies experimentally explored LSD transmission mechanisms in vectors and cattle. Spatial and spatio-temporal models have primarily been developed for LSD endemic countries and focus on the spread of the disease in terms of environmental factors in relation to previous LSD events. There were very few studies on LSD-free countries, and these only focussed on risk of LSD introduction through specific entry pathways. This review did not identify any literature exploring the risk of spread of LSDV following introduction in LSD-free countries or geospatial modelling of the suitability of LSD-free countries for LSDV incursions. In conjunction with the risk parameters and models described in the identified literature, there is need to consider a wide range of risk factors specific to Australia to inform the design of risk-based surveillance for LSD in Australia.
期刊介绍:
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases brings together in one place the latest research on infectious diseases considered to hold the greatest economic threat to animals and humans worldwide. The journal provides a venue for global research on their diagnosis, prevention and management, and for papers on public health, pathogenesis, epidemiology, statistical modeling, diagnostics, biosecurity issues, genomics, vaccine development and rapid communication of new outbreaks. Papers should include timely research approaches using state-of-the-art technologies. The editors encourage papers adopting a science-based approach on socio-economic and environmental factors influencing the management of the bio-security threat posed by these diseases, including risk analysis and disease spread modeling. Preference will be given to communications focusing on novel science-based approaches to controlling transboundary and emerging diseases. The following topics are generally considered out-of-scope, but decisions are made on a case-by-case basis (for example, studies on cryptic wildlife populations, and those on potential species extinctions):
Pathogen discovery: a common pathogen newly recognised in a specific country, or a new pathogen or genetic sequence for which there is little context about — or insights regarding — its emergence or spread.
Prevalence estimation surveys and risk factor studies based on survey (rather than longitudinal) methodology, except when such studies are unique. Surveys of knowledge, attitudes and practices are within scope.
Diagnostic test development if not accompanied by robust sensitivity and specificity estimation from field studies.
Studies focused only on laboratory methods in which relevance to disease emergence and spread is not obvious or can not be inferred (“pure research” type studies).
Narrative literature reviews which do not generate new knowledge. Systematic and scoping reviews, and meta-analyses are within scope.