基于多种方法的中国长江流域上游分流域径流变化评估

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Arid Land Pub Date : 2024-05-18 DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0010-6
Xingbo Wang, Shuanghu Zhang, Yiman Tian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

定量评估气候变异和人类活动对径流的影响在水资源管理和维护生态系统完整性方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究以中国长江流域上游 6 个子流域为研究对象,揭示 1956-2020 年间径流演变趋势,并阐明其变化的驱动因素。采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall 检验和滑动 t 检验研究水文气象要素的变化趋势,采用累积距离水平法和有序聚类法识别突变点。采用降雨-径流关系法、坡度变化法和变渗能力(Budyko)假说法等三种方法定量评估了气候变化和人为干扰对径流变化的贡献。然后,比较了三种方法的可用性和稳定性。结果表明,从 1956 年到 2020 年,长江流域上游的径流量呈下降趋势,1985 年出现突变。为进行归因分析,可将径流序列分为两个阶段,即 1961-1985 年(基线期)和 1986-2020 年(变化期);结果发现,与其他两种方法相比,以降水为气候因子代表的降雨-径流关系法的可用性有限,而坡度变化法和布迪科假设法的结果具有高度一致性。在长江流域上游的子流域中,不同的因子表现出不同的影响。此外,人为干扰是导致径流变化的主要因素,占 53.0%-82.0%;气候因子对径流变化的贡献率为 17.0%-47.0%,是次要因素,其中降水是最具代表性的气候因子。这些结果提供了气候和人为变化如何协同影响长江流域上游径流的见解。
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Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity. This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China, to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–2020. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements, while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points. The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods, i.e., the rainfall-runoff relationship method, slope variation method, and variable infiltration capacity (Budyko) hypothesis method. Then, the availability and stability of the three methods were compared. The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020, with an abrupt change in 1985. For attribution analysis, the runoff series could be divided into two phases, i.e., 1961–1985 (baseline period) and 1986–2020 (changing period); and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods, while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results. Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. Moreover, human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes, accounting for 53.0%–82.0%; and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%, making it the secondary factor, in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor. These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.

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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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