Novel prediction model combining PET/CT metabolic parameters, inflammation markers, and TNM stage: prospects for personalizing prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Purpose

This study aims to develop a novel prediction model and risk stratification system that could accurately predict progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Methods

Herein, we included 106 individuals diagnosed with NPC, who underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT scanning before treatment. They were divided into training (n = 76) and validation (n = 30) sets. The prediction model was constructed based on multivariate Cox regression analysis results and its predictive performance was evaluated. Risk factor stratification was performed based on the nomogram scores of each case, and Kaplan–Meier curves were used to evaluate the model’s discriminative ability for high- and low-risk groups.

Results

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that N stage, M stage, SUV_max, MTV, HI, and SIRI were independent factors affecting the prognosis of patients with NPC. In the training set, the model considerably outperformed the TNM stage in predicting PFS (AUCs of 0.931 vs. 0.841, 0.892 vs. 0.785, and 0.892 vs. 0.804 at 1–3 years, respectively). The calibration plots showed good agreement between actual observations and model predictions. The DCA curves further justified the effectiveness of the model in clinical practice. Between high- and low-risk group, 3-year PFS rates were significantly different (high- vs. low-risk group: 62.8% vs. 9.8%, p < 0.001). Adjuvant chemotherapy was also effective for prolonging survival in high-risk patients (p = 0.009).

Conclusion

Herein, a novel prediction model was successfully developed and validated to improve the accuracy of prognostic prediction for patients with NPC, with the aim of facilitating personalized treatment.