A dose of nature to reduce sexual crimes in public outdoor spaces: Proposing the Landscape-Sexual Crime Model

Sexual crime is a critical global social problem. There remains a critical knowledge gap concerning whether and to what extent sexual crimes in public outdoor spaces can be influenced by landscape morphology of green spaces. This missing knowledge hinders the effective use of green spaces to reduce sexual crimes in these public settings. To address this issue, we collected a dataset comprising 5,155 cases of sexual crimes that occurred in public outdoor spaces in the United States from August 2021 to July 2022. A random forest model was employed to examine the statistical relationships between landscape morphology and sexual crimes. Additionally, we utilized the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) model to quantify the interaction effects of landscape morphology with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This study yields three key findings: (1) Both the proportion and configuration factors of landscape morphology may significantly influence the sexual crime probability. (2) The relationships between landscape morphology and sexual crimes are nonlinear, and threshold values for the satisfactory dose and the preferred dose of green spaces can be identified. (3) There are significant interaction effects between landscape morphology with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing green space interventions in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Lastly, through summarizing the findings of this study and previous research, we propose the Landscape-Sexual Crime Model (LSCM), which advocates for further research to explore effective strategies for using green spaces to reduce sexual crimes.