Counterfactuals in mainstream media: A pathway for blame attribution and policy endorsement in police lethal force incidents

Previous research demonstrates that exposure to police lethal force through the media impacts individuals' support for police reform, but the mechanism driving this support is underexplored. The current study examines how news media counterfactuals (i.e., creating alternative outcomes for events that have already occurred) influence individuals' processing of police lethal force incidents, and how these perceptions, in turn, impact support for police reform. In a 2 (victim race: Black vs. White) × 3 (counterfactual target: victim, officer, or no counterfactual control) factorial design, 925 participants read a news article summarizing a lethal force incident, assigned blame for both the officer and victim, and reported their endorsement for various police reforms. Results indicated counterfactual target impacted blame attributions, and these blame attributions predicted endorsement of police reform while controlling for Attitudes Towards Police Legitimacy (APLS). These findings illustrate how media counterfactuals can influence blame, and importantly, influence perceptions of various police reforms.