Climatic conditions and landscape diversity predict plant–bee interactions and pollen deposition in bee-pollinated plants

Climate change, landscape homogenization, and the decline of beneficial insects threaten pollination services to wild plants and crops. Understanding how pollination potential (i.e. the capacity of ecosystems to support pollination of plants) is affected by climate change and landscape homogenization is fundamental for our ability to predict how such anthropogenic stressors affect plant biodiversity. Models of pollinator potential are improved when based on pairwise plant–pollinator interactions and pollinator's plant preferences. However, whether the sum of predicted pairwise interactions with a plant within a habitat (a proxy for pollination potential) relates to pollen deposition on flowering plants has not yet been investigated. We sampled plant–bee interactions in 68 Scandinavian plant communities in landscapes of varying land-cover heterogeneity along a latitudinal temperature gradient of 4–8°C, and estimated pollen deposition as the number of pollen grains on flowers of the bee-pollinated plants Lotus corniculatus and Vicia cracca. We show that plant–bee interactions, and the pollination potential for these bee-pollinated plants increase with landscape diversity, annual mean temperature, and plant abundance, and decrease with distances to sand-dominated soils. Furthermore, the pollen deposition in flowers increased with the predicted pollination potential, which was driven by landscape diversity and plant abundance. Our study illustrates that the pollination potential, and thus pollen deposition, for wild plants can be mapped based on spatial models of plant–bee interactions that incorporate pollinator-specific plant preferences. Maps of pollination potential can be used to guide conservation and restoration planning.